Groundwater potential mapping in arid and semi-arid regions of kurdistan region of Iraq: A geoinformatics-based machine learning approach

Abstract

Groundwater (GW) is a crucial and increasingly scarce natural resource, that is affected by climate change and mismanagement. To manage GW resources effectively, it is crucial to accurately identify GW potential zones (GWPZs) using modern techniques. This study aimed to employ and assess geoinformatics-based machine learning (ML) models to delineate GWPZs in the Akre district, Kurdistan region of Iraq. Six nonparametric ML models were used: a support vector machine (SVM), k-nearest neighbours (KNN), decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), gradient boost DT (GBDT), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). These models were trained on diverse GWPZ-favourable influencing factors, encompassing topographic, hydrological, geological, and environmental aspects. The findings of this study revealed that the XGBoost model outperformed the other nonparametric models in terms of best-fit performance and accuracy in generating a GW potential map (GWPM), achieving a R² of 0.88, a root mean square error (RMSE) of 11.348, and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 6.623. Notably, over half of the study area (53%) was categorised as having high or very high GWPZs, primarily in the low-lying Rovia Plain. The study identified rainfall, elevation, lineament density (LD), drainage density (Dd), topographic wetness index (TWI), and slope as the most significant factors influencing GWPZ modelling. This study provides a comprehensive framework for GW resource management, ecological conservation, and urban development planning. These insights are crucial for stakeholders, policymakers, and local authorities in strategic resource planning and environmental stewardship.