End-of-life nickel recycling: Energy security and circular economy development

IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Resources Policy Pub Date : 2024-09-24 DOI:10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105308
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Abstract

This study examines the consumption of nickel resources in China from 2004 to 2022 and utilizes data from the International Energy Agency as a foundation to predict future consumption and End-of-life (EoL) nickel recycling volumes by a novel dynamic material flow analysis (D-MFA) model. Distinguished from the preceding MFA studies, we highlight the future nickel stocks and flows, and the logistic function as well as linear step-length method are applied to assess EoL nickel recycling under five different demand scenarios and recycling assumptions. The findings show that the share of EoL nickel secondary supply currently stands at 27% of overall nickel demand. In addition, the nickel demand curve under different recycling conditions also reveals a projected gap of approximately 4.4 million tons between nickel supply and demand until 2050. The empirical results demonstrate a significant growth of nickel demand in the new energy battery industry, while nickel consumption in the stainless steel is tending towards saturation. Moreover, although the recycling rate of nickel is expected to keep rising, the consumption of nickel remains significantly higher than the recycling volume, entailing a long-term dependence on imported nickel.
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报废镍回收:能源安全与循环经济发展
本研究考察了 2004 年至 2022 年中国镍资源的消耗情况,并以国际能源机构的数据为基础,通过新型动态物质流分析(D-MFA)模型预测了未来的镍消耗量和报废镍回收量。有别于以往的 MFA 研究,我们强调了未来镍的存量和流量,并应用逻辑函数和线性步长法评估了五种不同需求情景和回收假设下的 EoL 镍回收量。研究结果表明,目前原生镍二次供应占镍总需求的 27%。此外,不同回收条件下的镍需求曲线还显示,预计到 2050 年,镍的供需缺口约为 440 万吨。实证结果表明,新能源电池行业对镍的需求大幅增长,而不锈钢行业对镍的消耗则趋于饱和。此外,尽管镍的回收率预计将持续上升,但镍的消费量仍大大高于回收量,这意味着镍将长期依赖进口。
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来源期刊
Resources Policy
Resources Policy ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES-
CiteScore
13.40
自引率
23.50%
发文量
602
审稿时长
69 days
期刊介绍: Resources Policy is an international journal focused on the economics and policy aspects of mineral and fossil fuel extraction, production, and utilization. It targets individuals in academia, government, and industry. The journal seeks original research submissions analyzing public policy, economics, social science, geography, and finance in the fields of mining, non-fuel minerals, energy minerals, fossil fuels, and metals. Mineral economics topics covered include mineral market analysis, price analysis, project evaluation, mining and sustainable development, mineral resource rents, resource curse, mineral wealth and corruption, mineral taxation and regulation, strategic minerals and their supply, and the impact of mineral development on local communities and indigenous populations. The journal specifically excludes papers with agriculture, forestry, or fisheries as their primary focus.
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