Social risk assessment of the transition from internal combustion engine vehicles to electric vehicles: Material supply chains in China, Japan, and South Korea

Abstract

In order to reduce carbon emissions, the production of internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) is being transitioned to the production of electric vehicles (EVs). However, the social unsustainability of this process needs further testing. This study explored the social risk characteristics of the transition from ICEVs to EVs based on the Social Hotspots Database (SHDB), combining with the Social Life Cycle Assessment (SLCA) and the Marginal Analysis Method (MAM). Here, we revealed the differences in social risks in the material supply chains between China, Japan, and South Korea, which may create incentives for 100 % supply concentration in a hypothetical game. In terms of social risk, common substitution trends in the iron‑aluminum sector and synergy patterns in the copper-rubber sector were observed in the three countries. As a key factor influencing social risks, cost factor may change, and cost changes due to transition were mainly influenced by production adjustments and sourcing differences, reflecting differences in production capacity trends. This study makes it possible to consider ICEVs and EVs as two endpoints for transition activity in a SLCA exercise and provides valuable insights focusing on transition, aiding in material selection for future product design and underscoring the importance of proactive consideration of social sustainability indices.