Ecoepidemic modeling and dynamics of alveolar echinococcosis transmission

Abstract

Alveolar echinococcosis, transmitted between definitive hosts and intermediate hosts via predation, threatens the health of humans and causes great economic losses in western China. In order to explore the transmission mechanism of this disease, an eco-epidemiological lifecycle model is formulated to illustrate interactions between two hosts. The basic and demographic reproduction numbers are developed to characterize the stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria as well as bifurcation dynamics. The existence of forward bifurcation and Hopf bifurcation are confirmed and are used to explain the threshold transmission dynamics. Numerical simulations and bifurcation diagrams are also presented to depict rich dynamics of the model. Numerical analysis suggests that improving the control rate of voles will reduce the risk of transmission, while the high predation rate of foxes may also lead to a lower transmission risk, which is different from the predictions of previous studies. The evaluation of three control measures on voles implies that, when the fox’s predation rate is low (high), the chemical (integrated) control will be more effective.