Dynamic modeling of human error in industrial maintenance through structural analysis and system dynamics.

IF 3 3区 医学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI:10.1111/risa.17652
Vahideh Bafandegan Emroozi, Mostafa Kazemi, Alireza Pooya, Mahdi Doostparast
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Abstract

Human error constitutes a significant cause of accidents across diverse industries, leading to adverse consequences and heightened disruptions in maintenance operations. Organizations can enhance their decision-making process by quantifying human errors and identifying the underlying influencing factors, thereby mitigating their repercussions. Consequently, it becomes crucial to examine the value of human error probability (HEP) during these activities. The objective of this paper is to determine and simulate HEP in maintenance tasks at a cement factory, utilizing performance shaping factors (PSFs). The research employs the cross-impact matrix multiplication applied to classification (MICMAC) analysis method to evaluate the dependencies, impacts, and relationships among the factors influencing human error. This approach classifies and assesses the dependencies and impacts of different factors on HEP, occupational accidents, and related costs. The study also underscores that PSFs can dynamically change under the influence of other variables, emphasizing the necessity to forecast the behavior of human error over time. Therefore, this paper utilizes the MICMAC method to analyze the interdependencies, relationships, and impact levels among different variables. These relationships are then utilized to optimize the implementation of the system dynamics (SD) method. An SD model is employed to forecast the system's behavior, and multiple scenarios are presented. By considering the HEP value, managers can adjust organizational conditions and personnel to ensure acceptability. The paper also presents various scenarios related to HEP to assist managers in making informed decisions.

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通过结构分析和系统动力学对工业维护中的人为错误进行动态建模。
人为失误是各行各业发生事故的重要原因,会造成不良后果,并加剧维护工作的中断。企业可以通过量化人为失误和识别潜在的影响因素来加强决策过程,从而减轻人为失误造成的影响。因此,在这些活动中研究人为错误概率 (HEP) 的价值变得至关重要。本文旨在利用绩效影响因素(PSF)确定和模拟水泥厂维护任务中的人为错误概率。研究采用交叉影响矩阵乘法应用于分类(MICMAC)分析方法,以评估影响人为错误的因素之间的依赖关系、影响和关系。这种方法对不同因素对 HEP、职业事故和相关成本的依赖性和影响进行了分类和评估。该研究还强调,在其他变量的影响下,PSFs 会发生动态变化,这就强调了预测人为错误随时间变化的行为的必要性。因此,本文利用 MICMAC 方法来分析不同变量之间的相互依存关系、关系和影响程度。然后利用这些关系来优化系统动力学(SD)方法的实施。我们采用 SD 模型来预测系统行为,并提出了多种方案。通过考虑 HEP 值,管理人员可以调整组织条件和人员,以确保可接受性。本文还介绍了与 HEP 相关的各种方案,以帮助管理人员做出明智的决策。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Risk Analysis
Risk Analysis 数学-数学跨学科应用
CiteScore
7.50
自引率
10.50%
发文量
183
审稿时长
4.2 months
期刊介绍: Published on behalf of the Society for Risk Analysis, Risk Analysis is ranked among the top 10 journals in the ISI Journal Citation Reports under the social sciences, mathematical methods category, and provides a focal point for new developments in the field of risk analysis. This international peer-reviewed journal is committed to publishing critical empirical research and commentaries dealing with risk issues. The topics covered include: • Human health and safety risks • Microbial risks • Engineering • Mathematical modeling • Risk characterization • Risk communication • Risk management and decision-making • Risk perception, acceptability, and ethics • Laws and regulatory policy • Ecological risks.
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