An Approach to Interpreting Space Weather Natural Indicators to Evaluate the Impact of Space Weather on High-Latitude Power Systems

IF 0.9 4区地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth Pub Date : 2024-09-30 DOI:10.1134/S106935132470054X

A. V. Vorobev, A. N. Lapin, A. A. Soloviev, G. R. Vorobeva

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Abstract—Dynamic exploration and development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation is inextricably linked to the need to minimize risks to the technosphere, associated, among other things, with space weather effects on power equipment systems operated within the coverage of the auroral oval. At the same time, the concomitant monitoring of space weather parameters and variations of the geomagnetic field in the Arctic is carried out only by means of a small group of satellites and several dozens of magnetic stations located mainly in the USA, Canada, northern and central Europe. It is clear that the current situation practically excludes the possibility of operational diagnostics of the level of geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) for the most part of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, where, in fact, the only available indicator of space weather conditions are polar auroras. The paper proposes an approach to interpreting aurora appearance to assess space weather impact on high-latitude infrastructure facilities. Based on the case study of the “Vykhodnoy” substation of the “Severnyi Tranzit” (Northern Transit) main electric transmission line it is shown that when the aurora is observed in the north, at the zenith (overhead), and in the south relative to the observation point, the most probable (30-min average) GIC is 0.08, 0.23, and 0.68 A, respectively. At the same time, the probability of half-hourly average GIC exceeding 2 A (with auroras observed in the north, overhead, and in the south relative to the impacted object) is ~6, ~10, and ~15%, respectively. Finally, the ways to improving the proposed technique and the applicability limits of the approach are discussed.

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解读空间天气自然指标以评估空间天气对高纬度电力系统影响的方法

摘要--俄罗斯联邦北极区的动态勘探和开发与尽量减少对技术层的风险的需要密不可分，这种风险除其他外与空间气象对极光椭圆覆盖范围内运行的电力设备系统的影响有关。与此同时，对空间气象参数和北极地磁场变化的同步监测只能通过一小组卫星和主要位于美国、加拿大、北欧和中欧的几十个磁力站来进行。显然，目前的情况实际上排除了对俄罗斯联邦北极区大部分地区的地磁感应电流水平进行业务诊断的可能性，事实上，那里唯一可用的空间气象条件指标是极地极光。本文提出了一种解释极光外观的方法，以评估空间天气对高纬度基础设施的影响。基于对 "Severnyi Tranzit"（北方过境）主要输电线路的 "Vykhodnoy "变电站的案例研究表明，当在观测点的北部、天顶（高空）和南部观测到极光时，最可能的（30 分钟平均值）GIC 分别为 0.08、0.23 和 0.68 A。同时，半小时平均 GIC 超过 2 A 的概率（极光在北面、上空和相对于受影响天体的南面观测到）分别为~6%、~10%和~15%。最后，讨论了改进拟议技术的方法以及该方法的适用范围。

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来源期刊

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth 地学-地球化学与地球物理

CiteScore

1.60

自引率

30.00%

发文量

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth is an international peer reviewed journal that publishes results of original theoretical and experimental research in relevant areas of the physics of the Earth''s interior and applied geophysics. The journal welcomes manuscripts from all countries in the English or Russian language.