Manifold increase in the spatial extent of heatwaves in the terrestrial Arctic

Abstract

It is widely acknowledged that the intensity, frequency and duration of heatwaves are increasing worldwide, including the Arctic. However, less attention has been paid to the land area affected by heatwaves. Here, using atmospheric reanalysis and global climate models, we show that the area covered by heatwaves is substantially expanding in the terrestrial Arctic. Compared to the mid-20th century, the total land area affected by severe heatwaves in the Arctic has doubled, the area of extreme heatwaves has tripled, and the area of very extreme heatwaves has quadrupled. Furthermore, climate model projections suggest that the extent of heatwaves will continue to increase in the 21st century, but with large regional differences in heatwave magnitudes due to summer intraseasonal temperature variability. Our findings underscore the growing vulnerability of the Arctic region to extreme heat, potentially leading to severe impacts on both ecosystems and societies. The Arctic is experiencing a significant increase in the area covered by heatwaves, with climate models predicting further heatwave severity in the 21st century, according to results from observed and projected changes in heatwaves over the terrestrial Arctic using advanced atmospheric reanalysis and global climate models.