Real-time identification of precursors in commercial aviation using multiple-instance learning

Abstract

This research pioneers the application of precursor concepts to preemptively identify and prevent aviation safety incidents using Machine Learning (ML). Airlines and governing organizations, such as the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in the United States, have been trying to prevent safety incidents during routine operations. However, this task is challenging due to the lack of timestep-wise event annotation in flights and the complexity involved in the timely identification of incidents prior to their occurrence. To address these issues, we propose a real-time precursor identification methodology combining Multiple-Instance Learning (MIL) and feature-based Knowledge Distillation (KD) learning. Our two-stage approach, involving deep MIL for labeling and a KD-based model for real-time warnings, demonstrates state-of-the-art performance and a time delay of 2.99ms using a dataset of 23,549 real flights. Further experiments using t-distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE) and occlusion method confirm our model’s transparency, enabling the generation of reliable quantitative precursor scores and facilitating reasoning about the causes of safety incidents at the parameter level. Additionally, statistical analysis of precursors reveals varying evolution times for different safety events, which indicates that pilots have at least 8 s to react after receiving a warning. In conclusion, our research provides a theoretical foundation and technical support for the next generation of online risk warning systems, enhancing flight safety and offering a pathway towards more intelligent and secure flight operations.