Correlating 300 million years of catastrophes

Abstract

It is frequently proposed that large bolide impacts and voluminous volcanic eruptions may be responsible for environmental catastrophes. In the conventional approach, the potential causes and consequences are matched using an age-versus-age plot, with preferential ages selected for comparison. This approach inevitably results in a one-to-one correlation, which may be misleading. To address this issue, a novel statistical metric, named conformity, has been proposed which accounts for the possibility of age coincidence resulting from random processes (i.e. bad luck coincidence). The available and updated geochronological datasets of bolide impacts, large igneous provinces, CO₂-concentration peaks in the atmosphere, mass extinctions, ocean anoxic events, and climatic optima and thermal highs were subjected to a comparison in terms of their concordance. The most significant discovery is the correlation between the ages of mass extinctions and those of giant bolide impacts (crater diameter >40 km), as well as volcanism of continental large igneous provinces and CO₂-concentration peaks in the atmosphere. The severity of mass extinctions appears to be dependent upon the number of simultaneously occurring causes. The most pronounced Late Maastrichtian (∼66 Ma) and Changhsingian (∼252 Ma) mass extinctions were likely caused by a combination of factors, including the simultaneous occurrence of volcanism of continental large igneous provinces, giant bolide impact and CO₂-concentration rise in the atmosphere. Conversely, the ages of large igneous provinces, bolide impacts and CO₂-concentration peaks are not correlated, indicating that these three causes were not interdependent.