Trade risk transmission of global cobalt industrial chain based on multi-layer network

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Resources Policy Pub Date : 2024-10-04 DOI:10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105338

Yingli Li , Jianbai Huang , Anqi Zeng , Hongwei Zhang

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Abstract

In order to study the potential systemic risk transmission in cobalt trade, this paper combined the infectious disease model with complex networks to build a multi-layer network trade risk transmission model for cobalt trade based on the transmission of export restrictions and bilateral friction in a single country, in order to simulate the degree of impact of risk transmission in cobalt industry chain, identify key countries and risk transmission paths. The results show that multi-layer network risk transmission of global cobalt trade based on two communication forms has the characteristics of “robust and fragile”. In addition, the risk transmission situation based on bilateral frictions is mainly transmitted by core countries and direct contacts. The risk transmission based on the export restriction of a single country is mainly through direct contact, indirect contact and regional transmission. We also find that the multi-layer trade network of global cobalt trade can resist the bilateral frictional transmission mode better than the transmission mode of single country export restriction. The results can support policy makers to optimize the cobalt trade structure and mitigate the negative impact of trade disruptions.

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基于多层网络的全球钴产业链贸易风险传递

为研究钴贸易中潜在的系统性风险传导，本文将传染病模型与复杂网络相结合，构建了基于单一国家出口限制和双边摩擦传导的钴贸易多层网络贸易风险传导模型，以模拟钴产业链风险传导的影响程度，识别关键国家和风险传导路径。结果表明，基于两种传播形式的全球钴贸易多层网络风险传导具有 "稳健、脆弱 "的特征。此外，基于双边摩擦的风险传导形势主要通过核心国家和直接联系进行传导。基于单一国家出口限制的风险传导主要通过直接接触、间接接触和区域传导。我们还发现，全球钴贸易的多层贸易网络比单一国家出口限制的传导模式更能抵御双边摩擦的传导模式。这些结果有助于政策制定者优化钴贸易结构，减轻贸易中断带来的负面影响。

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来源期刊

Resources Policy ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES-

CiteScore

13.40

自引率

23.50%

发文量

602

审稿时长

69 days

期刊介绍： Resources Policy is an international journal focused on the economics and policy aspects of mineral and fossil fuel extraction, production, and utilization. It targets individuals in academia, government, and industry. The journal seeks original research submissions analyzing public policy, economics, social science, geography, and finance in the fields of mining, non-fuel minerals, energy minerals, fossil fuels, and metals. Mineral economics topics covered include mineral market analysis, price analysis, project evaluation, mining and sustainable development, mineral resource rents, resource curse, mineral wealth and corruption, mineral taxation and regulation, strategic minerals and their supply, and the impact of mineral development on local communities and indigenous populations. The journal specifically excludes papers with agriculture, forestry, or fisheries as their primary focus.