Drought risk assessment based on hazard, vulnerability, and coping capacity concepts for hot and dry climate regions of Iran

Abstract

Due to the complex and multi-dimensional nature of droughts, it is not possible to assess drought-induced damage and its consequences for various social, economic, and environmental aspects of societies by relying only on a univariate index such as precipitation-based drought indices. The present study aimed to develop a practical and scientific framework based on hazard, vulnerability (social, economic, and environmental), and coping capacity to generate a drought risk map for the hot and dry climate regions of Iran. Accordingly, the Drought Hazard Index (DHI), Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI), and Drought Coping Capacity Index (DCCI) were derived from “the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)”, “16 social, economic and environmental variables” and “three social, economic variables”, respectively. The layers of all variables of the three indices in the GIS were provided, and they were combined in the form of an equation to produce a drought hazard map of central and southeastern Iran. The results indicate that the counties most and least vulnerable to drought were located in the southeast and west of the case study area, respectively. A number of large households, long distances from provincial centers, and soil erosion were the most important social, economic, and environmental factors making the southeast of the case study (including south of Sistan and Baluchestan and south of Kerman provinces) most vulnerable to drought. Due to their high drought coping capacity, counties located in the west of the case study (west of Kerman and south of Yazd provinces) were least vulnerable to drought. Extended support for low-income households by charitable organizations, tertiary education, and most importantly, a variety of jobs and career opportunities were the most important factors in reducing vulnerability in this part of Iran. Furthermore, our methodology by taking social, economic, and environmental dimensions into account as risk, vulnerability, and coping capacity indices can be far more efficient than the methods considering only risk and vulnerability factors.