The generalized STAR modelling with three-dimensional of spatial weight matrix in predicting the Indonesia peatland’s water level

Abstract

The release rate of CO₂ gas can be influenced by peatlands’ physical properties, such as water level and soil moisture, and rainfall. To anticipate the unstable condition which is when the peatland emit more carbon, we developed the Generalized Space Time Autoregressive (GSTAR) model in predicting these physical properties for the following weeks. As the innovation in modelling, the spatial weight matrix was based on three-dimensional coordinates with a modification on the height factor. The data we used are real-time data of water level on the peatlands in Pulang Pisau Regency, Central Kalimantan Province from 20 February 2021 to 18 March 2023. We then used Ordinary Kriging interpolation on the prediction results to create contour maps on different dates. There were empty data on several dates, especially from 24 March until 3 August 2022. To fill the empty data, we used linear interpolation and then we added white noise to the interpolation results. From the data, the water level has a downward trend pattern from around November to September and an upward trend pattern from October to November. Furthermore, we found that the best model for water level was GSTAR (2;0.1) with a modified matrix \(a=0.1\) and \(b=1.1\). Based on the predicted water level, there is a risk of changes in the properties of the peatlands in several areas in Pulang Pisau Regency.