Exploring a GIS-based analytic hierarchy process for spatial flood risk assessment in Egypt: a case study of the Damietta branch

Abstract

Floods are the most common and costly disasters worldwide, while spatial flood risk assessment is still challenging due to fewer observations and method limitations. In this study, the flood risk zonation in the Nile districts of the Damietta branch, Egypt, is delineated and assessed by integrating remote sensing with a geographic information system, and an analytical hierarchy process (AHP). Twelve thematic layers (elevation, slope, normalized difference vegetation index, topographic wetness index, modified normalized difference water index, topographic positioning index, stream power index, modified Fournier index, drainage density, distance to the river, sediment transport index, and lithology) are used for producing flood susceptibility zonation (FSZ) and six parameters (total population, distance to hospital, land use/land cover, population density, road density, and distance to road) are utilized for producing flood vulnerability zonation. Multicollinearity analysis is applied to identify highly correlated independent variables. Sensitivity studies have been used to assess the effectiveness of the AHP model. The results indicate that the high and very high flood risk classes cover 21.40% and 8.26% of the area, respectively. In 14.07%, 27.01%, and 29.26% of the research area, respectively, flood risk zones classified as very low, low, and moderate are found. Finally, FSZ is validated using the receiver operating characteristics curve and area under curve (AUC) analysis. A higher AUC value (0.741) in the validation findings demonstrated the validity of this AHP approach. The results of this study will help planners, hydrologists, and managers of water resources manage areas that are susceptible to flooding and reduce potential harm.