NOx reduction scenarios under real-world driving conditions for light-duty diesel vehicles

Abstract

This study analyze analyzes the impact of stringent emissions regulations on future NOx reductions. Using scenario analysis, NOx emissions of diesel light-duty vehicles from 2019 to 2040 are estimated using emission factors from real driving emissions data. The baseline scenario assumes current regulations will be maintained, while other scenarios assess the impact of implementing specific Euro standards as final regulations. If Euro 5 regulations are implemented by 2040, cumulative emissions will increase by 229.1 % compared to the baseline scenario. Implementing Euro 6 a/b/c regulations will increase by 156.2 %, while Euro 6 d-temp and Euro 6 d regulations will increase by 8.4 % and 0.7 %, respectively. These findings highlight the significant contribution of real driving emission test introduced with Euro 6 d-temp to NOx reduction. Furthermore, they indicate that Euro 6 d regulation has already achieved emission levels similar to those of the upcoming Euro 7 regulation.