A tri-light warning system for hospitalized COVID-19 patients: Credibility-based risk stratification for future pandemic preparedness

Abstract

Purpose

The novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) has continually spread and mutated, requiring a patient risk stratification system to optimize medical resources and improve pandemic response. We aimed to develop a conformal prediction-based tri-light warning system for stratifying COVID-19 patients, applicable to both original and emerging variants.

Methods

We retrospectively collected data from 3646 patients across multiple centers in China. The dataset was divided into a training set (n = 1451), a validation set (n = 662), an external test set from Huoshenshan Field Hospital (n = 1263), and a specific test set for Delta and Omicron variants (n = 544). The tri-light warning system extracts radiomic features from CT (computed tomography) and integrates clinical records to classify patients into high-risk (red), uncertain-risk (yellow), and low-risk (green) categories. Models were built to predict ICU (intensive care unit) admissions (adverse cases in training/validation/Huoshenshan/variant test sets: n = 39/21/262/11) and were evaluated using AUROC ((area under the receiver operating characteristic curve)) and AUPRC ((area under the precision-recall curve)) metrics.

Results

The dataset included 1830 men (50.2 %) and 1816 women (50.8 %), with a median age of 53.7 years (IQR [interquartile range]: 42–65 years). The system demonstrated strong performance under data distribution shifts, with AUROC of 0.89 and AUPRC of 0.42 for original strains, and AUROC of 0.77–0.85 and AUPRC of 0.51–0.60 for variants.

Conclusion

The tri-light warning system can enhance pandemic responses by effectively stratifying COVID-19 patients under varying conditions and data shifts.