Dynamic Maintenance of Underground Pipelines via a Systematic Approach for Conservative Estimation of Pipeline Defect Probability Density Under Data Scarcity

IF 2.9 4区 工程技术 Q2 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Korean Journal of Chemical Engineering Pub Date : 2024-10-08 DOI:10.1007/s11814-024-00297-w
Damdae Park, Changsoo Kim, Kyeongsu Kim
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Abstract

The scarcity of the defect data may lead to the underestimation of defects, resulting in maintenance plans with inspection intervals that may not guarantee timely repairs. To address the low reliability of defect distribution models developed from insufficient data, we propose a systematic approach for deriving conservative probability distributions of pipeline defects. Based on the formal definition of conservative probability distributions, we present methods for modeling such distributions for pipeline defects, with the flexibility to adjust the degree of conservativeness. Furthermore, by incorporating Bayesian inference, we introduce a method for dynamic maintenance planning. The method enables effective utilization of the limited defect data samples obtained during pipeline inspection to assess overall pipeline conditions and dynamically determine subsequent maintenance intervals. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method can achieve cost-effective and safety-assured pipeline maintenance plans by quantitatively adjusting the degree of conservativeness, making it broadly applicable to various types of pipeline defects.

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在数据稀缺的情况下,通过系统方法保守估计管道缺陷概率密度,对地下管道进行动态维护
缺陷数据的匮乏可能会导致对缺陷的低估,从而导致维护计划中的检查间隔可能无法保证及时维修。为了解决根据不充分数据开发的缺陷分布模型可靠性低的问题,我们提出了一种推导管道缺陷保守概率分布的系统方法。基于保守概率分布的正式定义,我们提出了为管道缺陷建立此类分布模型的方法,并可灵活调整保守程度。此外,通过结合贝叶斯推理,我们介绍了一种动态维护规划方法。该方法可有效利用管道检测过程中获得的有限缺陷数据样本,评估管道的整体状况,并动态确定后续维护间隔。仿真结果表明,所提出的方法可以通过定量调整保守程度来实现经济高效且安全可靠的管道维护计划,因此广泛适用于各种类型的管道缺陷。
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来源期刊
Korean Journal of Chemical Engineering
Korean Journal of Chemical Engineering 工程技术-工程:化工
CiteScore
4.60
自引率
11.10%
发文量
310
审稿时长
4.7 months
期刊介绍: The Korean Journal of Chemical Engineering provides a global forum for the dissemination of research in chemical engineering. The Journal publishes significant research results obtained in the Asia-Pacific region, and simultaneously introduces recent technical progress made in other areas of the world to this region. Submitted research papers must be of potential industrial significance and specifically concerned with chemical engineering. The editors will give preference to papers having a clearly stated practical scope and applicability in the areas of chemical engineering, and to those where new theoretical concepts are supported by new experimental details. The Journal also regularly publishes featured reviews on emerging and industrially important subjects of chemical engineering as well as selected papers presented at international conferences on the subjects.
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