Spatial Variation of Changes in Extreme Discharge Seasonality Across the Northeastern United States

IF 3.2 3区 地球科学 Q1 Environmental Science Hydrological Processes Pub Date : 2024-10-27 DOI:10.1002/hyp.15317
Owen H. Richardson, Carl E. Renshaw, Francis J. Magilligan
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Abstract

The Northeast United States exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity in flood seasonality, with spring snowmelt-driven floods historically dominating northern areas, while other regions show more varied flood seasonality. While it is well documented that since 1996 there has been a marked increase in extreme precipitation across this region, the response of flood seasonality to these changes in extreme precipitation and the spatial distribution of these effects remain uncertain. Here we show that, historically, snowmelt-dominated northern regions were relatively insensitive to changes in extreme precipitation. However, with climate warming, the dominance of snowmelt floods is decreasing and thus the extreme flood regimes in northern regions are increasingly susceptible to changes in extreme precipitation. While extreme precipitation increased everywhere in the Northeastern United States in 1996, it has since returned to near pre-1996 levels in the coastal north while remaining elevated in the inland north. Thus, the inland north region has and continues to experience the greatest changes in extreme flooding seasonality, including a substantial rise in floods outside the historical spring flood season, particularly in smaller watersheds. Further analysis reveals that while early winter floods are increasingly common, the magnitude of cold season floods (Nov-May) have remained unchanged over time. In contrast, warm season floods (June-Oct), historically less significant, are now increasing in both frequency and magnitude in the inland north. Our results highlight that treating the entire Northeast as a uniform hydroclimatic region conceals significant regional variations in extreme discharge trends and, more generally, climate warming will likely increase the sensitivity of historically snowmelt dominated watersheds to extreme precipitation. Understanding this spatial variability in increased extreme precipitation and increased sensitivity to extreme precipitation is crucial for enhancing disaster preparedness and refining water management strategies in affected regions.

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美国东北部极端降水季节性变化的空间差异
美国东北部的洪水季节性在空间上表现出明显的异质性,北部地区历来以春季融雪驱动的洪水为主,而其他地区的洪水季节性则更为多样。有资料表明,自 1996 年以来,该地区的极端降水量明显增加,但洪水季节性对极端降水量变化的响应以及这些影响的空间分布仍不确定。在这里,我们表明,从历史上看,以融雪为主的北部地区对极端降水的变化相对不敏感。然而,随着气候变暖,融雪洪水的主导地位正在下降,因此北部地区的极端洪水机制越来越容易受到极端降水变化的影响。虽然 1996 年美国东北部各地的极端降水量都有所增加,但此后北部沿海地区的极端降水量已恢复到接近 1996 年之前的水平,而北部内陆地区的极端降水量仍在上升。因此,北部内陆地区已经并将继续经历最大的极端洪水季节性变化,包括历史上春季洪水季节之外洪水的大幅上升,特别是在较小的流域。进一步的分析表明,虽然初冬洪水越来越常见,但冷季洪水(11 月至次年 5 月)的规模却长期保持不变。相比之下,暖季洪水(6 月至 10 月)历来不太严重,但现在在北部内陆地区,其发生频率和洪水量都在增加。我们的研究结果突出表明,将整个东北地区视为一个统一的水文气候区掩盖了极端降水趋势的显著区域差异,而且更普遍的是,气候变暖可能会增加历史上以融雪为主的流域对极端降水的敏感性。了解极端降水增加和对极端降水敏感性增加的这种空间变化,对于加强灾害防备和完善受影响地区的水资源管理策略至关重要。
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来源期刊
Hydrological Processes
Hydrological Processes 环境科学-水资源
CiteScore
6.00
自引率
12.50%
发文量
313
审稿时长
2-4 weeks
期刊介绍: Hydrological Processes is an international journal that publishes original scientific papers advancing understanding of the mechanisms underlying the movement and storage of water in the environment, and the interaction of water with geological, biogeochemical, atmospheric and ecological systems. Not all papers related to water resources are appropriate for submission to this journal; rather we seek papers that clearly articulate the role(s) of hydrological processes.
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