Prediction of scour depth around monopiles in combined waves and current: A probabilistic assessment of M5’-MCS

IF 4.3 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, OCEAN Applied Ocean Research Pub Date : 2024-10-23 DOI:10.1016/j.apor.2024.104271
Tongshun Yu , Xin Tong , Xuguang Chen , Haoyang Song , Xuewen Zhao , Yuqiao Wang
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Abstract

Addressing the overlooked uncertainties and stochastic elements in prior studies on scour prediction, this research introduces a probabilistic prediction model for the scour depth around monopile foundations. To enhance the accuracy of the model, the M5’ model tree method was employed to construct a deterministic prediction formula, which was then evaluated using statistical indicators for performance. To address the issue of discontinuities within the deterministic formula, a continuity treatment was applied to improve the credibility of the formula. Expanding on the deterministic formula, a probabilistic model for estimating the local scour depth around a monopile subjected to combined wave and current conditions was developed using Monte Carlo simulations. These simulations integrated specific random parameters into the deterministic model, allowing for the assessment of how these parameters influence the failure probability. The results indicate that the M5’ model tree algorithm can effectively predict the equilibrium scour depth of a monopile under the influence of waves and currents, and the formula, post-continuity treatment, demonstrates enhanced credibility and applicability. Furthermore, the study indicates that the failure probability of a monopile escalates in relation to the increase in near-bed current velocity and the rise in maximum bed surface orbital velocity. It was also discovered that within a specific Froude number range, a consistently low failure probability is maintained, a conclusion that provides a reference for the design of monopile foundations.
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波浪和海流共同作用下单桩周围冲刷深度的预测:M5'-MCS 的概率评估
针对以往冲刷预测研究中忽略的不确定性和随机因素,本研究引入了单桩地基周围冲刷深度的概率预测模型。为了提高模型的准确性,采用了 "M5 "模型树方法来构建确定性预测公式,然后使用统计指标对其性能进行评估。为了解决确定性公式中的不连续性问题,采用了连续性处理方法来提高公式的可信度。在确定性公式的基础上,利用蒙特卡罗模拟法开发了一个概率模型,用于估算单桩周围在波浪和海流综合条件下的局部冲刷深度。这些模拟将特定的随机参数整合到确定性模型中,以便评估这些参数如何影响失效概率。结果表明,"M5 "模型树算法可以有效预测单桩在波浪和水流影响下的平衡冲刷深度,而且经过连续性处理后的公式显示出更高的可信度和适用性。此外,研究还表明,单桩的失效概率与近床流速的增加和最大床面轨道速度的上升有关。研究还发现,在特定的弗劳德数范围内,失效概率始终较低,这一结论为单桩地基的设计提供了参考。
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来源期刊
Applied Ocean Research
Applied Ocean Research 地学-工程:大洋
CiteScore
8.70
自引率
7.00%
发文量
316
审稿时长
59 days
期刊介绍: The aim of Applied Ocean Research is to encourage the submission of papers that advance the state of knowledge in a range of topics relevant to ocean engineering.
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