Applied Ocean Research最新文献

Flapping-foil energy harvesters: Principles, performance, and prospects 扑翼式能量收集器：原理、性能和前景

IF 4.4 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, OCEAN

Applied Ocean Research

Pub Date : 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.apor.2026.104953

Maqusud Alam , Bubryur Kim , Farzeen Shahid

Flapping-foil energy harvesters (FFEHs) are garnering attention as a promising alternative to conventional rotary turbines. This comprehensive review synthesises four decades of research, highlighting that power extraction is primarily governed by vortex dynamics (leading-edge-vortex formation and wake capture), which are influenced by the foil’s kinematics, geometry, flexibility and control. The reported peak hydrodynamic efficiencies are substantial: ≈40% for prescribed-motion systems, exceeding 50% for flexible or actively cambered foils. Efficiencies can be further enhanced using multi-foil arrays, ducted configurations, and tandem layouts, reaching up to 64%. However, most existing studies remain confined to two-dimensional or low-Reynolds-number regimes, limiting confidence in scaling these results for real-world deployment. Key challenges remain in stabilising complex three-dimensional wakes, developing practical power-take-off systems, and ensuring robust control in turbulent and shear flow conditions. Emerging strategies such as machine-learning-assisted optimisation, reinforcement-learning controllers, and hybrid activation concepts are also promising. Ultimately, advances in high-Reynolds-number fluid–structure interaction and data-driven control will be crucial in transitioning FFEH technology from laboratory prototypes to reliable, commercially viable renewable-energy solutions.

扑翼能量收集器（FFEHs）作为传统旋转涡轮机的一种很有前途的替代品而备受关注。这篇全面的综述综合了四十年的研究，强调了动力提取主要是由涡流动力学（前缘涡形成和尾迹捕获）控制的，这受箔的运动学、几何形状、灵活性和控制的影响。报道的峰值流体动力效率是可观的：对于规定运动系统≈40%，对于柔性或主动弯曲箔超过50%。采用多箔阵列、导管配置和串联布局可以进一步提高效率，最高可达64%。然而，大多数现有的研究仍然局限于二维或低雷诺数，限制了将这些结果扩展到现实世界部署的信心。关键的挑战仍然是稳定复杂的三维尾迹，开发实用的动力输出系统，以及确保在湍流和剪切流条件下的鲁棒控制。机器学习辅助优化、强化学习控制器和混合激活概念等新兴策略也很有前景。最终，高雷诺数流固耦合和数据驱动控制技术的进步将是FFEH技术从实验室原型向可靠、商业上可行的可再生能源解决方案转变的关键。

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引用次数: 0

Laboratory investigation of polydisperse rock releases into deep receiving waters through vertical, enclosed fall-pipes 多分散岩石通过垂直、封闭的落水管向深水接收水域释放的实验室研究

IF 4.4 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, OCEAN

Applied Ocean Research

Pub Date : 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.apor.2026.104957

Otto Neshamar , Alan J.S. Cuthbertson , Øyvind A. Thiem , Peter A. Davies

Laboratory experiments were conducted to investigate the transient release of graded particle mixtures into deep receiving waters through submerged vertical pipes with varying diameters and lengths. The experiments were scaled through geometric and dynamic similarity considerations to model the dumping of waste rock fragment masses into deep coastal waterbodies via enclosed vertical fall-pipes. The model rock fragment mixture was generated from colour-coded particle size classes, with their in-pipe vertical transport and release from the pipe exit measured from time-synchronised camera recordings. Quantitative image analysis methods were developed to determine the bulk and fractional particle velocities and concentrations at different pipe elevations and immediately below the pipe exit. For larger mass inputs, induced in-pipe fluid motions and particle mixing were strongly three-dimensional, characterised by upward and downward velocity fluctuations associated with oscillation and drawdown of the enclosed water surface. Equations of motion were developed to describe this transient free-surface behaviour within the pipe. Increased pipe confinement of the mass input was shown to hinder sedimentation from the fall-pipe, whilst promoting in-pipe segregation of the particle size classes released from the pipe exit. Finally, a series of sequential mass release experiments was conducted to investigate the quantity and fate of residual fines remaining in the fall-pipes after each mass input. These fines were ejected from the pipe exit as a puff or puffs before being re-entrained into the subsequent coarser particle stream. The implications of these scaled experimental measurements for optimising waste rock fragment mass disposal through vertical fall-pipes are discussed.

室内试验研究了分级颗粒混合物通过不同直径和长度的水下垂直管道向深水接收水域的瞬时释放。通过几何和动力相似性考虑对实验进行缩放，以模拟通过封闭垂直落水管向深海岸水体倾倒废石破碎体的过程。模型岩石碎片混合物由颜色编码的颗粒大小类别生成，它们在管道内的垂直运输和从管道出口的释放通过时间同步摄像机记录来测量。开发了定量图像分析方法，以确定不同管道高度和管道出口以下的体积和分数颗粒速度和浓度。对于较大的质量输入，诱导管内流体运动和颗粒混合是强烈的三维运动，其特征是向上和向下的速度波动与封闭水面的振荡和下降有关。建立了运动方程来描述管道内的瞬态自由表面行为。研究表明，增加管道对质量输入的限制会阻碍落管的沉降，同时促进从管道出口释放的颗粒粒度在管道内的分离。最后，进行了一系列连续的质量释放实验，以研究每次质量输入后落管内残余细粒的数量和去向。这些细颗粒从管道出口喷射出来，形成一个或多个泡状物，然后重新进入随后的粗颗粒流中。讨论了通过垂直落管优化废石碎片质量处置的这些尺度实验测量的含义。

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引用次数: 0

Numerical prediction of slamming loads on hull profile structures with varying curvatures during water entry 不同曲率船体剖面结构入水时撞击载荷的数值预测

IF 4.4 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, OCEAN

Applied Ocean Research

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.apor.2026.104945

Fulong Shi , Yu Tian , Cui Ma , Yingbin Zhang , Jianjian Xin , Xing Chang

During water entry, hull profiles of varying geometries induce pronounced air-cushion effects and slamming load oscillations, which may lead to structural failure or fatigue damage. This paper employed a self-developed CPU/GPU heterogeneous parallel numerical platform based on the Radial Basis Function Ghost Cell Method (RBFGCM) to investigate the slamming characteristics of symmetric and asymmetric curved wedges with different curvatures. The analysis concentrates on load variations, air cushion dynamics, and free-surface evolution. The results reveal that symmetric wedges with smaller curvature demonstrate smoother velocity decay, lower hydrodynamic resistance, and prolonged pressure oscillations with a uniform distribution. Conversely, larger radius of curvature wedges exhibited 133.3% higher instantaneous pressure peaks and accelerated velocity dissipation, accompanied by intensified free surface disturbances and premature jet separation. Increasing the deadrise angle from 25° to 35° reduces the peak slamming pressure by 39%. For asymmetric impacts, larger radius of curvature decreased the lateral load amplitude by 58% with mitigated oscillations. The C1 configuration displays distinctive positive-negative phase transitions at a 15° inclination, whereas the C5 profile maintains 32% lower lateral load fluctuations. The vertical force coefficient analysis reveals localized high-pressure zones for specific inclination-deadrise pairs: 25° deadrise at 25° inclination and 35° deadrise at 30° inclination. These findings provide critical insights for optimizing hull geometry in high-speed vessel design, enabling balanced load mitigation and hydrodynamic stability through strategic curvature parameter selection.

在入水过程中，不同几何形状的船体轮廓会引起明显的气垫效应和冲击载荷振荡，可能导致结构破坏或疲劳损伤。采用自主开发的基于径向基函数鬼胞法（RBFGCM）的CPU/GPU异构并行数值平台，研究了不同曲率的对称和非对称弯曲楔的撞击特性。分析集中在载荷变化，气垫动力学和自由表面演变。结果表明，曲率较小的对称楔体速度衰减更平稳，水动力阻力更小，压力振荡时间更长，且分布均匀。相反，曲率楔半径越大，瞬时压力峰值高133.3%，速度耗散加速，自由表面扰动加剧，射流过早分离。将死升角从25°增加到35°，峰值撞击压力降低39%。对于非对称冲击，较大的曲率半径降低了58%的横向载荷振幅，并减轻了振荡。C1剖面在倾角为15°时表现出明显的正-负相变，而C5剖面保持32%的低横向载荷波动。垂直力系数分析揭示了特定倾角-止升副的局部高压区域：倾角25°止升和倾角30°止升分别为25°和35°。这些发现为优化高速船舶设计中的船体几何形状提供了重要见解，通过战略性曲率参数选择实现平衡负载缓解和水动力稳定性。

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引用次数: 0

A framework for energy-balance audits in laboratory OWC experiments 实验室OWC实验中能量平衡审计的框架

IF 4.4 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, OCEAN

Applied Ocean Research

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.apor.2026.104949

Ashley N. Chong, Paul M. Koola, Sharath S. Girimaji

Wave energy conversion (WEC) systems have long promised a sustainable source of renewable energy. However, their progress remains constrained by persistently low conversion efficiencies and the absence of standardized practices for comparing system performance across studies and devices. Energy auditing is a critical element of experimental methodology for establishing confidence and credibility in laboratory investigations and the subsequent design of wave-energy systems. Its implementation is challenging: the energy input (decomposition of incident and reflected wave power), the useful output (device absorption), and especially losses (leakage, pneumatic, viscous, and radiative) are difficult to quantify. Recognizing these challenges, this paper presents an energy-balance framework for oscillating water column (OWC) laboratory studies and reports preliminary experimental results. The measurements integrate a four-probe incident/reflected decomposition and synchronized chamber-power measurements with a baseline loss model to evaluate overall energy closure. Two analysis windows—pre-rebound (Region 1) and post-rebound (Region 2)—are used to examine the influence of wave re-encounters and finite-flume effects. Application to initial flume measurements reveals a modest yet non-negligible range of unaccounted power and identifies conditions under which frequency-dependent losses may become significant. On the basis of these observations, the study offers lessons learned and best-practice recommendations for probe placement, calibration and leakage checks, and transparent reporting of residuals. The proposed framework establishes a reproducible foundation for OWC experimentation, enabling systematic optimization and informing design improvements.

波浪能转换（WEC）系统一直被认为是一种可持续的可再生能源。然而，他们的进展仍然受到持续低转换效率和缺乏标准化实践来比较研究和设备之间的系统性能的限制。能量审计是在实验室调查和波浪能系统的后续设计中建立信心和可信度的实验方法的关键要素。它的实现是具有挑战性的：能量输入（入射和反射波能的分解），有用的输出（器件吸收），特别是损失（泄漏，气动，粘性和辐射）难以量化。认识到这些挑战，本文提出了振荡水柱（OWC）实验室研究的能量平衡框架，并报告了初步的实验结果。测量集成了四探头入射/反射分解和同步腔室功率测量以及基线损耗模型，以评估整体能量闭合。两个分析窗口- - -反弹前（区域1）和反弹后（区域2）- - -被用来检验波浪再次相遇和有限水槽效应的影响。对初始水槽测量的应用揭示了一个适度但不可忽略的未计算功率范围，并确定了频率相关损失可能变得显著的条件。在这些观察的基础上，该研究提供了经验教训和最佳实践建议，用于探针放置，校准和泄漏检查，以及透明的残余报告。提出的框架为OWC实验建立了可重复的基础，实现了系统优化并为设计改进提供了信息。

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引用次数: 0

Study on the characteristics of underwater radiated noise induced by cabin airborne noise: Model testing and numerical simulation 舱室机载噪声诱发水下辐射噪声特性研究：模型试验与数值模拟

IF 4.4 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, OCEAN

Applied Ocean Research

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.apor.2026.104947

Haichao Li , Jialong Wang , Heyan Xu , Fuzhen Pang , Tianyi Hang

The vibration and acoustic radiation characteristics of reinforced cylindrical shells under airborne noise excitation in underwater compartments were investigated using experimental and numerical simulation approaches. A numerical simulation model of the cylindrical shell structure was developed, and its accuracy was validated through experimental data. Acoustic radiation measurements were conducted in an anechoic tank for the reinforced cylindrical shell under white noise, fixed-frequency, and in-service load excitations. By comparing the experimental results with numerical simulations, the effectiveness of the analytical method for studying compartment airborne noise excitation characteristics was validated. The experimental and numerical results demonstrate that, within the frequency range of 100 Hz to 10 kHz, the simulation outcomes exhibit good overall agreement with the experimental measurements, with a maximum discrepancy of 4 dB between the two datasets. This further confirms the reliability of the proposed analytical framework for assessing airborne noise excitation characteristics in underwater compartments.

采用实验和数值模拟相结合的方法，研究了水下舱室加强型圆柱壳在空气噪声激励下的振动和声辐射特性。建立了圆柱壳结构的数值模拟模型，并通过实验数据验证了模型的准确性。在消声箱中对加筋圆柱壳进行了白噪声、固定频率和在役载荷激励下的声辐射测量。通过实验结果与数值模拟结果的对比，验证了该分析方法研究舱室空气噪声激励特性的有效性。实验和数值结果表明，在100 Hz ~ 10 kHz的频率范围内，模拟结果与实验测量值总体吻合，最大误差为4 dB。这进一步证实了所提出的用于评估水下舱室空气噪声激励特性的分析框架的可靠性。

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引用次数: 0

On the role of long-term seawater exposure in the response of air-backed composites to hydrodynamic loading: An experimental study 长期海水暴露对气背复合材料水动力响应的影响：一项实验研究

IF 4.4 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, OCEAN

Applied Ocean Research

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.apor.2026.104943

Nicco Ulbricht , Birendra Chaudhary , Jana Awadalla , Helio Matos , Maurizio Porfiri

Fiber-reinforced polymer composites are widely used in naval applications due to their high strength-to-weight ratio and resistance to corrosion. However, their long-term behavior under seawater exposure and dynamic loading remains elusive. Despite extensive research on pristine composites, few studies have examined the dynamic behavior of seawater-degraded fiber-reinforced polymer composites. Here, we investigate the influence of long-term seawater degradation on the dynamic response of fiberglass epoxy plates subjected to hydrodynamic loading in an air-backed configuration, mimicking the response to wave slamming or underwater explosions. The fiberglass epoxy plates were weathered in artificial seawater under accelerated conditions for up to eight weeks. Using three-dimensional digital image correlation and planar particle image velocimetry, we capture the coupled structural dynamics and flow physics of air-backed loading. Our results show that seawater degradation results in a significant reduction in stiffness, evidenced by larger displacements and a corresponding reduction in the hydrodynamic loading during the initial phase of the plate’s oscillation. These findings advance the understanding of fluid–structure interactions in seawater-weathered composites and underscore the importance of accounting for environmental degradation in the design of naval structures.

纤维增强聚合物复合材料因其高强度重量比和耐腐蚀性能而广泛应用于舰船。然而，它们在海水暴露和动力载荷下的长期行为仍然是难以捉摸的。尽管对原始复合材料进行了广泛的研究，但很少有研究对海水降解纤维增强聚合物复合材料的动态行为进行研究。在这里，我们研究了长期海水降解对玻璃纤维环氧树脂板在气背结构下受水动力载荷的动力响应的影响，模拟了波浪撞击或水下爆炸的响应。玻璃纤维环氧板在人工海水中加速风化长达8周。利用三维数字图像相关技术和平面粒子图像测速技术，捕捉了气背载荷的耦合结构动力学和流动物理特性。我们的研究结果表明，海水退化会导致刚度的显著降低，这可以通过更大的位移和相应的板振荡初始阶段水动力载荷的减少来证明。这些发现促进了对海水风化复合材料中流体-结构相互作用的理解，并强调了在船舶结构设计中考虑环境退化的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Gaussian process estimation of underwater acoustic fluctuations: Experimental validation on the Iceland–Faroe polar front 水声波动的高斯过程估计：冰岛-法罗极锋的实验验证

IF 4.4 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, OCEAN

Applied Ocean Research

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.apor.2025.104908

Alexandre L’Her , Angélique Drémeau , David Dellong , Pierre-Antoine Dumont , Yann Stéphan

Forecasting underwater acoustic propagation in oceanic frontal areas is a difficult task due to their unstable dynamics. In this work, we propose to fit a Gaussian Process model, with a kernel derived from a structure model, to infer the position of the front from profiler data. Samples from the Gaussian Process can be used to generate sound-speed fields. Parabolic equation simulations on those samples show a good agreement with experimental acoustic data in propagation parallel to and across the front. As it can be intuitively expected, the discrepancy is a bit higher for across-front propagation due to strong range-dependence. However, these discrepancies are statistically due to Gaussian Process samples which proportion do not exceed 10% of the simulated data.

由于海洋锋面区域的动态不稳定，水声传播预报是一项困难的任务。在这项工作中，我们建议拟合高斯过程模型，并从结构模型中获得核，以从分析器数据中推断出前面的位置。来自高斯过程的样本可以用来产生声速场。这些样品的抛物方程模拟结果表明，平行于锋面和穿过锋面的传播与实验声学数据吻合较好。正如可以直观地预期的那样，由于距离依赖性很强，跨前传播的差异要大一些。然而，这些差异在统计上是由于高斯过程样本的比例不超过模拟数据的10%。

引用次数: 0

Aerodynamic modeling and wake characterization of a 15-MW offshore wind turbine: Insights from blade-resolved URANS simulations 15兆瓦海上风力涡轮机的空气动力学建模和尾流特性：来自叶片分辨率URANS模拟的见解

IF 4.4 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, OCEAN

Applied Ocean Research

Pub Date : 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.apor.2026.104935

Cong Yi , Shenglei Fu , Shangru Jia , Shuyu Yan , Haoran Yang , Hongbo Zhu

As offshore wind turbines continue to scale up beyond 15 MW, their aerodynamic complexity and wake interactions present significant modeling and performance prediction challenges. This study investigates the aerodynamic behavior and wake characteristics of the IEA-15MW reference wind turbine using high-fidelity three-dimensional CFD simulations based on the URANS framework with the SST

k - ω

turbulence model. A series of blade-resolved simulations are conducted across a range of below-rated wind speeds to evaluate flow separation phenomena, spanwise force distribution, and local blade aerodynamics. The results reveal a nearly constant angle of attack (AOA) prior to pitch control engagement, with decreasing separation from root to mid-span and significant tip loss effects near the blade edge. A comparative analysis with Blade Element Momentum Theory (BEMT) demonstrates that BEMT overestimates the axial induction velocity and aerodynamic loading, which is attributed to an overprediction of the axial induction factor and limitations in the tip loss corrections. However, despite these differences in the force distribution along the blade, the results show comparable overall power estimates. Furthermore, the wake recovery process is governed by distinct mechanisms in the hub and tip regions: viscous and turbulent diffusion dominate recovery near the hub, whereas velocity shear primarily drives recovery in the tip region. In the far wake, the tip and hub vortices begin to interact and merge, enhancing the overall velocity recovery of the wake. Collectively, the findings provide critical insights into advanced aerodynamic modeling, accurate performance evaluation, and effective wake management strategies for next-generation ultra-large offshore wind turbines.

随着海上风力涡轮机的规模继续扩大到15兆瓦以上，其空气动力学复杂性和尾流相互作用给建模和性能预测带来了重大挑战。基于URANS框架和SST k−ω湍流模型，采用高保真三维CFD模拟方法研究了IEA-15MW参考风力机的气动特性和尾迹特性。在低于额定风速的范围内进行了一系列叶片解析模拟，以评估流动分离现象、展向力分布和叶片局部空气动力学。结果表明，在螺距控制啮合之前，攻角（AOA）几乎是恒定的，从根部到跨中之间的分离减少，叶缘附近的叶尖损失效应显著。与叶片单元动量理论（BEMT）的对比分析表明，BEMT高估了轴向诱导速度和气动载荷，这是由于对轴向诱导因子的高估和叶尖损失修正的局限性。然而，尽管沿着叶片的力分布存在这些差异，但结果显示出可比较的总体功率估计。此外，尾迹恢复过程受轮毂和叶尖区域的不同机制控制：粘性和湍流扩散主导着轮毂附近的恢复，而速度剪切主要驱动叶尖区域的恢复。在远尾流中，叶尖和轮毂涡开始相互作用并合并，增强了尾流的整体速度恢复。总的来说，这些发现为下一代超大型海上风力涡轮机的先进空气动力学建模、准确的性能评估和有效的尾流管理策略提供了重要的见解。

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引用次数: 0

A hybrid machine learning and physics-based model to predict the fatigue life of free-spanning pipelines 一种混合机器学习和基于物理的模型来预测自由跨越管道的疲劳寿命

IF 4.4 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, OCEAN

Applied Ocean Research

Pub Date : 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.apor.2026.104948

Ali Karrech , Mohammed Abdelsalam , Hongwei An , Fraser Bransby , Scott Draper , Phil Watson

Predicting the dynamic response of a free-spanning subsea pipeline is complicated because of the intricate interactions dependent on the seabed behaviour, pipeline deformation and hydrodynamics. Traditionally, deterministic modelling techniques based on analytical, numerical and/or empirical solutions have been employed for predicting the response of subsea pipelines and inferring their fatigue damage. However, uncertainties in external loading conditions due to the stochastic nature of hydrodynamic forces pose challenges, necessitating innovative approaches for robust estimation. In this paper, we propose a novel methodology, termed Gaussian-Fourier latent force modelling (GFLFM) for stochastic pipeline fatigue analysis, which integrates Gaussian processes (GP), random Fourier features (RFF), latent force modelling (LFM), and fatigue damage assessment. This framework combines physics-based partial differential equations (PDEs) describing the system dynamics with GP regression to infer latent input forces; it is cast to address the limitations of deterministic approaches. GFLFM facilitates the accurate prediction of subsea pipeline responses while quantifying uncertainties. The proposed GFLFM framework offers a promising avenue for modelling and predicting the behaviour of free-spanning subsea pipelines. Integrating machine learning techniques with physics-based models enables more accurate predictions while accounting for uncertainties, thereby enhancing the reliability and sustainability of offshore infrastructure design and maintenance strategies.

由于海底行为、管道变形和流体动力学等因素的相互作用，预测自由跨越海底管道的动力响应是非常复杂的。传统上，基于解析、数值和/或经验解的确定性建模技术已被用于预测海底管道的响应和推断其疲劳损伤。然而，由于水动力的随机性，外部加载条件的不确定性带来了挑战，需要创新的鲁棒估计方法。在本文中，我们提出了一种新的方法，称为高斯-傅立叶潜力建模（GFLFM）用于随机管道疲劳分析，它集成了高斯过程（GP）、随机傅立叶特征（RFF）、潜力建模（LFM）和疲劳损伤评估。该框架将描述系统动力学的基于物理的偏微分方程（PDEs）与GP回归相结合，以推断潜在的输入力；它旨在解决确定性方法的局限性。GFLFM有助于准确预测海底管道响应，同时量化不确定性。所提出的GFLFM框架为模拟和预测自由跨越海底管道的行为提供了一个有前途的途径。将机器学习技术与基于物理的模型相结合，可以在考虑不确定性的同时实现更准确的预测，从而提高海上基础设施设计和维护策略的可靠性和可持续性。

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引用次数: 0

Transforming metocean data into motion predictions: A review of very short-term predictions of floating body motions 将海洋数据转化为运动预测：对漂浮体运动的极短期预测的回顾

IF 4.4 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, OCEAN

Applied Ocean Research

Pub Date : 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.apor.2026.104934

Shen Mei , Shao Fei , Xu Qian , Li Jiandong , Weng Kaiqiang

This paper introduces a novel, phase-based classification framework for the very short-term prediction (VSTP) of floating body motions to resolve the ambiguities and overlaps inherent in traditional algorithm-based classifications. The proposed framework organizes existing approaches into three forecasting phases, i.e., wave-field measurement, wave-field forecasting, and wave-to-motion mapping. It identifies four major model categories: wave forecasting, hydrodynamic, adaptive filtering, and historical data–driven models. Notably, this structure clarifies the functional roles of different methodologies and resolves long-standing classification ambiguities. Furthermore, a bibliometric analysis of the literature from 2015–2025 demonstrates that research activity has increasingly shifted toward data-centric approaches. Indeed, publications on historical data–driven models increased from 8 in 2015 to 39 in 2024, corresponding to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20%, while adaptive filtering models exhibited even faster growth, rising from 5 to 32 studies with a CAGR of about 25%. In contrast, wave forecasting models showed moderate growth, increasing from 2 to a peak of 15 before declining to 11, whereas hydrodynamic model studies remained relatively stable at 0–7 publications per year. Comparative performance analysis reveals that no single model consistently outperforms others across key criteria, including prediction accuracy, forecasting horizon, interpretability, and real-time applicability. Instead, future advances in VSTP are likely to rely on multi-model fusion, improved wave-sensing technologies, data augmentation for extreme sea states, and uncertainty-aware forecasting, all of which are essential for reliable deployment in safety-critical offshore operations.

本文引入了一种新的基于相位的浮体运动极短期预测（VSTP）分类框架，以解决传统基于算法的分类中固有的歧义和重叠。提出的框架将现有的预测方法分为三个阶段，即波场测量、波场预测和波-运动映射。它确定了四个主要的模型类别：波浪预测、水动力、自适应滤波和历史数据驱动模型。值得注意的是，这种结构澄清了不同方法的功能角色，并解决了长期存在的分类歧义。此外，对2015-2025年文献的文献计量分析表明，研究活动越来越多地转向以数据为中心的方法。事实上，历史数据驱动模型的出版物从2015年的8篇增加到2024年的39篇，对应的复合年增长率（CAGR）约为20%，而自适应滤波模型的增长更快，从5篇增加到32篇，复合年增长率约为25%。相比之下，波浪预报模型呈现温和增长，从2个增加到峰值15个，然后下降到11个，而水动力模型研究保持相对稳定，每年发表0-7篇。比较性能分析表明，没有一个模型在预测精度、预测范围、可解释性和实时适用性等关键标准上始终优于其他模型。相反，VSTP的未来发展可能依赖于多模型融合、改进的海浪传感技术、极端海况的数据增强和不确定性感知预测，所有这些对于在安全关键的海上作业中可靠部署至关重要。

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引用次数: 0