Assessing critical flood-prone districts and optimal shelter zones in the Brahmaputra Valley: Strategies for effective flood risk management

Abstract

Frequent flooding has become a persistent issue in floodplain regions, causing significant disasters during each rainy season due to insufficient disaster management planning. This study proposes a methodology to prioritize flood susceptibility areas at the district level and identify suitable sites for flood shelters using a combination of machine learning algorithms and multi-criteria analysis, supported by geospatial technology. Flood shelter suitability mapping was conducted using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), while flood susceptibility zones were assessed using four different machine learning models: Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest, Decision Tree, and Naive Bayes. The integration of machine learning models with the AHP technique is vital in situations where conventional numerical models face challenges due to limited data, such as river discharge and water levels. The methodology includes a multicollinearity assessment to ensure the independence of selected flood-causing factors, information gain ratio to identify the most influential factors, Spearman's rho test to verify correlations between the machine learning models, and ROC-AUC along with statistical regression for validating the accuracy of the flood susceptibility maps. The findings indicate that the SVM algorithm, given its strong performance and effective training datasets, is recommended for areas with similar physical characteristics. The district-wise priority map generated from the weighted results of flood susceptibility assessments will be useful for flood management and mitigation strategies. Additionally, the study found that applying the AHP technique to determine flood shelter suitability, after assessing flood-prone areas, enhanced the efficiency of the flood management process. This research offers valuable insights for authorities to better address flooding and improve flood prevention and management efforts in floodplain regions, contributing to broader climate change adaptation strategies.