Virtual arable land trade reveals inequalities in the North China Plain: Regional heterogeneity and influential determinants

Abstract

Arable land supply in North China Plain (NCP) has significantly contributed to national food security and economic development in China. To clarify the complex arable land use relationships between NCP and other provinces in China, this study applied an environmentally extended multi-regional input-output model to analyze the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of virtual arable land (VAL) trade in China associated with the food supply in NCP from 2007 to 2017. The driving forces of VAL trade were further identified using structural decomposition analysis (SDA). The results showed that NCP exported 10.280 Mha of VAL to other provinces in China in 2017, with a decrease of 2.85% compared to 2007. At the same time, NCP imported 13.799 Mha of VAL from other provinces, with an increase of 4.39%. The top net importers from NCP were Zhejiang (1.355 Mha), Shanxi (0.862 Mha) and Guangdong (0.746 Mha), which are mostly located on the developed southern coast. The top three provinces of NCP that supplied the largest proportions of VAL to the outside were Henan (30.89%), Anhui (26.32%) and Hebei (22.93%). Meanwhile, the gap between per capita consumption-based arable land of provinces in NCP is decreasing. The findings of SDA revealed that resource intensity caused a reduction of 23.09 Mha of VAL, while per capita consumption caused an increase of 27.39 Mha of VAL from 2007 to 2017. This study helps support optimization of the interregional supply mode, promotion of resource complementarity and industrial cooperation among different regions, and achievement of sustainable agricultural development.