A probabilistic framework for offshore aquaculture suitability assessment using bivariate copulas

IF 3.6 2区 农林科学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ENGINEERING Aquacultural Engineering Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI:10.1016/j.aquaeng.2024.102479
R. Santjer , P. Mares-Nasarre , L. Vilmin , G.Y.H. El Serafy , O. Morales-Nápoles
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Abstract

Aquaculture at sea is gaining increasing importance, not only as a (local) food source but also due to its potential of being combined with other offshore activities such as wind parks. Nevertheless, experience of offshore aquaculture is limited. This study aims to provide a framework to evaluate offshore aquaculture suitability accounting for the probabilistic dependence between relevant variables. This framework is applied to obtain suitability maps of aquaculture for the North Sea for the blue mussel Mytilus edulis and the sugar kelp Saccharina latissima. For each of these species, three ecological variables are selected and the optimal growth and critical survival limits are defined. Here, suitability is defined as the probability of meeting these conditions. Data on the selected variables is extracted from a large-scale 3D hydrodynamic and ecological model of the northwest European Shelf, of which daily extremes are sampled. The probabilistic model is developed using bivariate copula models, which are fitted to each variable pair to describe their joint distribution function at each studied location. Empirical distribution functions are used to describe the univariate distribution function of each variable and location. Using Monte-Carlo simulations, the probability of meeting the optimal and critical limits is estimated and suitability maps accounting for the probabilistic dependence between the variables are generated. In addition, suitability maps disregarding the dependence are generated and compared to those accounting for the probabilistic dependence. It was found that considering the dependence between variables significantly improves the accuracy of the results for optimal and critical growth conditions for both species. The presented method allows to identify potential areas where blue mussel and sugar kelp cultivation is the most suitable. For instance, in this study, a north-south elongated area west of the German and Danish coast appears to be most suitable for blue mussels, while estuaries and rivers are found the most suitable for the sugar kelp.
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利用双变量协方差进行近海水产养殖适宜性评估的概率框架
海上水产养殖的重要性与日俱增,它不仅是一种(当地)食物来源,还因为它有可能与风力发电厂等其他海上活动相结合。然而,近海水产养殖的经验有限。本研究旨在提供一个评估近海水产养殖适宜性的框架,其中考虑了相关变量之间的概率依赖关系。应用该框架可获得北海蓝贻贝(Mytilus edulis)和糖海带(Saccharina latissima)的水产养殖适宜性图。为每个物种选择了三个生态变量,并定义了最佳生长和临界存活极限。这里,适宜性被定义为满足这些条件的概率。所选变量的数据来自西北欧大陆架的大型三维水动力和生态模型,并对其中的日极端值进行了取样。概率模型是利用双变量协整模型开发的,每个变量对都拟合了协整模型,以描述它们在每个研究地点的联合分布函数。经验分布函数用于描述每个变量和地点的单变量分布函数。通过蒙特卡洛模拟,估算出达到最佳和临界极限的概率,并生成反映变量之间概率依赖关系的适宜性图。此外,还生成了不考虑依赖性的适宜性图,并与考虑概率依赖性的适宜性图进行比较。研究发现,考虑变量之间的依赖性可显著提高两种物种最佳和临界生长条件结果的准确性。所提出的方法可以确定最适合养殖蓝贻贝和糖海带的潜在区域。例如,在这项研究中,德国和丹麦海岸以西的南北拉长区域似乎最适合养殖蓝贻贝,而河口和河流则最适合养殖糖海带。
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来源期刊
Aquacultural Engineering
Aquacultural Engineering 农林科学-农业工程
CiteScore
8.60
自引率
10.00%
发文量
63
审稿时长
>24 weeks
期刊介绍: Aquacultural Engineering is concerned with the design and development of effective aquacultural systems for marine and freshwater facilities. The journal aims to apply the knowledge gained from basic research which potentially can be translated into commercial operations. Problems of scale-up and application of research data involve many parameters, both physical and biological, making it difficult to anticipate the interaction between the unit processes and the cultured animals. Aquacultural Engineering aims to develop this bioengineering interface for aquaculture and welcomes contributions in the following areas: – Engineering and design of aquaculture facilities – Engineering-based research studies – Construction experience and techniques – In-service experience, commissioning, operation – Materials selection and their uses – Quantification of biological data and constraints
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