A deep kernel regression-based forecasting framework for temperature-induced strain in large-span bridges

Abstract

The strain data from health monitoring systems of large-span bridges is influenced by various load effects, with the extraction and forecasting of temperature-induced strain being particularly significant for precise analysis and early warning of monitoring data. This paper presents a forecasting framework for temperature-induced strain in large-span bridges, employing a deep kernel regression (DKR) approach that integrates deep learning with Bayesian regression to enhance accuracy and certainty. Initially, this paper addresses the influence of additional response increment induced by vehicle strain effects and employs a robust data smoothing algorithm to extract temperature-induced effect components from measured strain data offline. Subsequently, a DKR model is proposed, integrating a long short-term memory (LSTM) layer with a fully connected layer. The output of the deep learning module serves as the kernel function parameter for the Gaussian process regression (GPR) module, and the GPR module with updated hyperparameters is used for time series forecasting. This method effectively extracts and utilizes time series features from historical data alongside key environmental factors, enabling real-time forecasting of strain effects and significantly improving the performance and utility of health monitoring systems in large-span bridges. Compared to commonly used time series forecasting algorithms, the algorithm proposed in this paper exhibits significantly improved accuracy, stability, and certainty. Through comparing the inference time, it was verified that the algorithm can meet the performance requirements of real-time inference, which underscores the model's potential as a robust tool in bridge structural health monitoring.