Investigating the impacts of the Dual Carbon Targets on energy and carbon flows in China

Abstract

As the world's largest carbon emitter, China has committed to ambitious “Dual Carbon Targets” to address climate change. To investigate the impact of the Dual Carbon Targets on energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, CO₂ emissions were calculated, and Sankey diagrams of energy and CO₂ flows for 2018–2022 were drawn based on the latest energy statistics. This study finds that China's primary energy supply was 5.429 Gtce, with terminal energy consumption at 3.801 Gtce in 2022. CO₂ emissions reached 12.01 Gt, marking a 12.24 % increase since 2018. Emission intensity varies regionally, being higher in the north and lower in the south, with a national average of 0.1 kg/CNY. Coal continues to dominate energy consumption at 64 %, though its share of emissions is declining, particularly in transportation and residential sectors. By 2060, electricity is expected to become the primary energy source, significantly lowering carbon emissions, with Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage technologies playing a crucial role in achieving the targets. This analysis provides critical insights into China's transition to a low-carbon economy, serving as a valuable resource for policymakers to optimize the energy structure and meet environmental goals.