Fleet vehicle replacement strategy in the Korean market under phase-out of conventional vehicle

IF 7.3 1区工程技术 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment Pub Date : 2024-11-09 DOI:10.1016/j.trd.2024.104501

Sangbaek Woo , Deok-Joo Lee , Saedaseul Moon

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Abstract

With the recent global requirements to phase out internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), fleet owners (FOs) must consider battery electric vehicles (BEVs) as replacements, introducing regulatory risk due to policy changes. Many countries have legal retirement age limit for fleet vehicles (FVs), considered as policy constraint necessitating eventual replacement. Additionally, uncertainties like fuel price of ICEV and battery price affect the replacement decision. This study proposes an optimal replacement strategy using real option approach for annual decision-making under multiple risk factors. Using data from the Korean FV market, we provide managerial implications. Despite optimistic battery price projections, voluntary BEV switching is not expected to exceed 40% of total FVs. Sensitivity analysis reveals that adjusting the legal retirement age is more effective than changing the BGVSP implementation year. Also, A flexible subsidy based on fuel prices and the extension of the legal retirement age limit through safety inspections should be recommended.

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韩国市场在淘汰传统车辆情况下的车队车辆更换战略

随着最近全球要求淘汰内燃机汽车（ICEV），车队所有者（FOs）必须考虑将电池电动汽车（BEV）作为替代品，这就带来了政策变化带来的监管风险。许多国家规定了车队车辆（FV）的法定报废年限，这被视为最终必须更换的政策限制。此外，内燃机车燃料价格和电池价格等不确定因素也会影响替换决策。本研究利用实物期权法提出了一种在多种风险因素下进行年度决策的最优更换策略。利用韩国 FV 市场的数据，我们提供了管理方面的启示。尽管对电池价格的预测很乐观，但预计自愿更换的 BEV 不会超过 FV 总量的 40%。敏感性分析表明，调整法定退休年龄比改变 BGVSP 实施年份更有效。此外，应建议根据燃料价格提供灵活补贴，并通过安全检查延长法定退休年龄限制。

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来源期刊

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment 工程技术-运输科技

CiteScore

14.40

自引率

9.20%

发文量

314

审稿时长

39 days

期刊介绍： Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment focuses on original research exploring the environmental impacts of transportation, policy responses to these impacts, and their implications for transportation system design, planning, and management. The journal comprehensively covers the interaction between transportation and the environment, ranging from local effects on specific geographical areas to global implications such as natural resource depletion and atmospheric pollution. We welcome research papers across all transportation modes, including maritime, air, and land transportation, assessing their environmental impacts broadly. Papers addressing both mobile aspects and transportation infrastructure are considered. The journal prioritizes empirical findings and policy responses of regulatory, planning, technical, or fiscal nature. Articles are policy-driven, accessible, and applicable to readers from diverse disciplines, emphasizing relevance and practicality. We encourage interdisciplinary submissions and welcome contributions from economically developing and advanced countries alike, reflecting our international orientation.