Coupling coordination between carbon storage protection in alpine wetlands and SDGs: A case study of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China

Abstract

As an important ecosystem of the planet, wetlands play a pivotal role in carbon storage. For alpine regions, safeguarding wetland carbon storage (WCS) has become an integral aspect of sustainable development. To explore the correlation between WCS and sustainable development, we predicted wetland patterns and WCS on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) for 2030 under four scenarios. Utilizing the spatial boundaries of protected areas (PAs), we evaluated current and future changes in the representation and effectiveness of WCS protection. Furthermore, a coupling coordination degree (CCD) model was used to identify the relationship between WCS protection and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The results showed that lakes and reservoirs/ ponds were the largest and smallest wetland types on the QTP, respectively, and both displayed an increasing trend from 2000 to 2020, while other wetland types mostly exhibited an opposite trend. Scenario analysis revealed the largest increase in river area compared to 2020 under the comprehensive development scenario (CDS), reaching 6.88%. Across all scenarios, lakes would increase by approximately 6%, primarily due to distance to water and population density. The economic development scenario (EDS) experienced the greatest reduction in swamps. Under these four scenarios, compared to 2020, WCS hotspots displayed varying degrees of decline, with the ecological conservation scenario (ECS) experiencing the most significant reduction (4.2%) and the EDS experiencing the least reduction (0.14%). Only swamps and rivers conservation representation can be improved in 2030. For WCS outside PAs, the most significant enhancement was achieved under ECS for all wetlands except rivers. 6 classes of seriously, moderate, slight incoordination and barely, moderate, high coordination areas were detected based on the CCD analysis. Among the above zones, over 65% of prefecture-level municipalities on the QTP exhibited better than barely coordination levels in 2010, and by 2020, the figure had exceeded 69%. This study deepens understanding of the relationship between WCS and sustainable development in alpine plateaus, and provides decision-making support for coordinate regional development and wetland conservation.