Enhanced precipitation responses over the Tibetan Plateau following future Tambora-size volcanic eruption

IF 6.4 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Advances in Climate Change Research Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI:10.1016/j.accre.2024.09.007
Xin-Jun Gan , Lin-Shan Yang , Meng Zuo , Fei Liu , Chao-Chao Gao
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Abstract

Hydroclimate over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) notably influences the eco-environment of the Northern Hemisphere. Given its high elevation and complex topography, the climate in the TP shows a high sensitivity to anthropogenic warming and volcanic-induced cooling. The mechanism by which a future volcanic or similar radiative perturbation affects precipitation in the TP under an anthropogenic warming climate must be addressed not only to enable regional adaptation but deepen our understanding of how a climate system evolves under such a dual force. Here, based on the Community Earth System Model version 1.2 and ensemble simulations under pre-industrial and RCP8.5 scenarios, we showed that a Tambora-sized volcanic perturbation led to severe rainfall reduction over the south TP in the following summer (June–August). Evaporation response accounted for a minor and relatively constant share of precipitation reduction following the Clausius–Clapeyron scaling, whereas dynamic processes triggered an El Niño-like response in the eastern equatorial Pacific, which suppressed the Walker and Hadley circulation and contributed to drying anomalies. Global warming renders the post-Tambora hydroclimate responses with 30% higher severity as a result of the increased climatological moisture content and intensified El Niño response, which enhanced hydroclimate sensitivity and attenuated monsoon circulation. The results illustrate the amplification effect of global warming on the plateau's hydroclimate responses to external forcings, which may add another layer of uncertainty on climate adaptation in this already complex region.
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未来坦博拉级火山爆发后青藏高原降水增强的反应
青藏高原(TP)的水文气候对北半球的生态环境有着显著的影响。由于海拔高、地形复杂,青藏高原的气候对人为变暖和火山引起的降温非常敏感。在人为变暖的气候条件下,未来火山或类似的辐射扰动会对大洋洲热带雨林的降水量产生怎样的影响,这个问题必须得到解决,这不仅是为了实现区域适应,也是为了加深我们对气候系统如何在这种双重作用下演变的理解。在此,我们基于共同体地球系统模式 1.2 版以及工业化前和 RCP8.5 情景下的集合模拟,证明了坦博拉规模的火山扰动导致南部大洋洲在接下来的夏季(6 月至 8 月)降雨量严重减少。按照克劳修斯-克拉皮隆缩放比例,蒸发响应在降水减少中所占比例较小且相对稳定,而动态过程在赤道东部太平洋引发了类似厄尔尼诺的响应,抑制了沃克环流和哈德利环流,导致了干燥异常。由于气候湿度增加和厄尔尼诺反应增强,水文气候敏感性提高,季风环流减弱,全球变暖使坦博拉后水文气候反应的严重程度提高了 30%。研究结果表明,全球变暖会放大高原水文气候对外部作用力的反应,这可能会给这个本已复杂的地区的气候适应性带来更多的不确定性。
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来源期刊
Advances in Climate Change Research
Advances in Climate Change Research Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science
CiteScore
9.80
自引率
4.10%
发文量
424
审稿时长
107 days
期刊介绍: Advances in Climate Change Research publishes scientific research and analyses on climate change and the interactions of climate change with society. This journal encompasses basic science and economic, social, and policy research, including studies on mitigation and adaptation to climate change. Advances in Climate Change Research attempts to promote research in climate change and provide an impetus for the application of research achievements in numerous aspects, such as socioeconomic sustainable development, responses to the adaptation and mitigation of climate change, diplomatic negotiations of climate and environment policies, and the protection and exploitation of natural resources.
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