Decoupling effect and influencing factors of carbon emissions in China: Based on production, consumption, and income responsibilities

Abstract

Carbon emissions at the provincial level are mostly calculated based on production responsibility, which ignores the carbon emission accounting perspectives of consumption and income responsibility. However, scientific accounting of carbon emissions from multiple perspectives is crucial to equitably distribute the responsibilities for reducing emissions. This study utilises an input–output model for multi-regional carbon emissions to calculate carbon emissions from production-, consumption- and income-based perspectives for exploring the variability in the responsibilities for reducing emissions at the provincial level. The Tapio decoupling coefficient is used to analyse the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in key provinces, and the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model is used to determine the factors promoting or inhibiting the decoupling of carbon emissions under different responsibility perspectives. The results show that, firstly, the national carbon emissions illustrate the following trend: production-based emissions > income-based emissions > consumption-based emissions. Secondly, provinces in strong decoupling states are distributed in a northeast–southwest direction. Carbon emissions and decoupling situations differ among varying responsibility perspectives due to interprovincial transfers of carbon emissions. Thus, a compensation mechanism should be established to promote a fair and orderly peaking in each province. Lastly, carbon emission intensity is a factor promoting decoupling in all three perspectives. In the meantime, output scale, economic development and factor input are the major inhibiting factors for the decoupling of production-, consumption- and income-based emissions, respectively.