Sea-level rise, groundwater quality, and the impacts on coastal homeowners’ decisions to sell

Abstract

Sea-level rise poses a growing threat to coastal communities and economies across the globe. North Carolina (NC) is no exception, with coastal communities facing annual sea-level rise rates of 2.01 to 4.55 mm/year (NOAA, 2018). Sea-level rise can affect key ecosystem services to coastal communities, including the provision of clean drinking water and adequate wastewater treatment. We examine how increases in the cost of these services and possible negative effects on coastal house prices due to sea-level rise impact homeowners’ decisions to remain in their current home or sell. Administering a stated preference survey to NC homeowners in counties adjacent to the coast, we assess how households might respond to increasing costs due to sea-level rise. We present a novel framework to estimate expected welfare impacts under illustrative scenarios, and examine heterogeneity in responses and welfare effects with respect to place attachment. Our analysis can help inform local communities and benefit-cost analyses of future adaptation strategies and infrastructure investments.