Journal of Housing Economics最新文献

英文中文

Discrimination in the Austrian rental housing market: The effect of information concerning first and second-generation immigrant status 奥地利住房租赁市场中的歧视：第一代和第二代移民身份信息的影响

IF 1.4 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Housing Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2024.102030

Doris Weichselbaumer, Hermann Riess

This study investigates the previously unexplored effect that immigrant generation has on housing discrimination against immigrants. Property owners may perceive more recent immigrants as particularly “other” and fear that they will not be good tenants, e.g. because they will treat a property in an undesirable manner or not pay their bills. To test the effect of acculturation, we conduct an email correspondence test in Austria and compare landlords’ responses to inquiries from immigrants (with a Serbian, Syrian or Turkish name) of the first, first and a half, and second-generation to those who do not provide respective information about their immigration background. We find that when applicants indicate their place of birth and upbringing, discrimination is highest for first-generation immigrants and lowest for second-generation immigrants. This suggests an advantage for more acculturated applicants. However, compared to providing no information, actively signaling a second-generation background only benefits one of the immigrant groups tested (Syrians), who may be perceived as recent refugees otherwise.

本研究调查了移民世代对移民住房歧视的影响，这种影响此前尚未被探索。房东可能会认为新移民特别 "另类"，担心他们不是好租客，例如他们会以不良方式对待房产或不付账单。为了检验文化适应的影响，我们在奥地利进行了一次电子邮件通信测试，并比较了房东对第一代、第一代半和第二代移民（名字为塞尔维亚、叙利亚或土耳其）与未提供各自移民背景信息的移民的询问的回应。我们发现，当申请人说明其出生地和成长经历时，第一代移民受到的歧视最高，第二代移民受到的歧视最低。这表明文化程度较高的申请人更有优势。然而，与不提供任何信息相比，主动表明第二代背景只对其中一个受测移民群体（叙利亚人）有利，否则他们可能会被视为近期难民。

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引用次数: 0

The effect of flood risk on house prices in the Basque Country 洪水风险对巴斯克地区房价的影响

IF 1.4 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Housing Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2024.102022

Patricia Menéndez , Maria Jesús Bárcena , María Cristina González , Fernando Tusell

We analyze property prices, including both sales and rents, in relation to climate change-associated flood risk arising from sea level rise and river overflow. Our body of evidence consists of sale and rent offered prices in the Basque Country from 2007 to 2017, totaling over 329,000 observations. Our quantitative methods depart from those in other studies by using the ratio of sale to rent prices, deemed more likely to reflect the effects we are investigating. We use geographically weighted regression (GWR) with neighborhoods tailored to risk areas. Our findings provide some evidence of risk capitalization, although limited to areas of higher risk.

我们分析了房地产价格（包括销售和租金）与海平面上升和河流泛滥导致的气候变化相关洪水风险的关系。我们的证据包括 2007 年至 2017 年巴斯克地区的销售和租赁价格，总计超过 329,000 个观测值。我们的定量方法与其他研究不同，我们使用的是销售价格与租金的比率，这被认为更有可能反映我们正在调查的影响。我们使用了地理加权回归（GWR），并根据风险区域对邻近地区进行了调整。我们的研究结果提供了一些风险资本化的证据，尽管仅限于风险较高的地区。

引用次数: 0

Gobi wind blows housing price away: Willingness to pay for clean air in China 戈壁风吹走了房价中国为清洁空气付费的意愿

IF 1.4 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Housing Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2024.102029

Jianglong Li, Shiqiang Sun

Economists often reply on housing market to investigate the willingness to pay for clean air, while potential endogeneity concerns pose challenges. This paper proposes an identification strategy based on the Gobi Desert dust storm, providing suitable instrumental variable for hedonic models at the house-day level in East Asia. We exploit within-Beijing and over-time variation in air pollution caused by dust storm and find that after addressing endogeneity issues, the negative impact of air pollution on housing prices strengthened nearly fivefold. Buyers in Beijing are willing to pay an additional 7.9 % in housing prices for a decrease of PM₁₀ by 100 μg/m³, indicating that the benefits of air pollution improvement in Beijing over the past decade are >1.5 trillion yuan in the housing market. This paper also reveals that an increase in air pollution leads sellers to exhibit a higher willingness to sell, reflecting in lower listing prices, heightened bargaining power for buyers, and a shorter transaction cycle.

经济学家通常通过住房市场来研究人们为清洁空气付费的意愿，但潜在的内生性问题带来了挑战。本文提出了一种基于戈壁滩沙尘暴的识别策略，为东亚地区房日水平的享乐主义模型提供了合适的工具变量。我们利用沙尘暴造成的空气污染在北京内部和时间上的变化，发现在解决了内生性问题后，空气污染对房价的负面影响增强了近五倍。北京的购房者愿意为 PM10 降低 100 μg/m³ 而额外支付 7.9% 的房价，这表明过去十年北京空气污染改善给住房市场带来的收益高达 1.5 万亿元。本文还揭示了空气污染加重会导致卖方表现出更高的出售意愿，反映在挂牌价格降低、买方议价能力增强和交易周期缩短上。

引用次数: 0

Does flood risk affect property prices? Evidence from a property-level flood score 洪水风险会影响房产价格吗？来自物业级别洪水评分的证据

IF 1.4 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Housing Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2024.102027

Alexandros Skouralis, Nicole Lux, Mark Andrew

One in six properties in England is exposed to flood risk and around half of those affected properties can be characterised as high risk. In this paper we examine whether the probability of flooding is capitalised in England's property market prices. We use unique property-level data from Rightmove, UK's no.1 property website and the property-level

F l o o d S c o r e^{T M}

by Twinn, Royal HaskoningDHV. The latter is a metric of objective flood risk based on the likelihood of an individual property being flooded due to rainfall, overflowing rivers and tidal surges and is commonly used by UK lenders. By comparing the unconditional averages of our data, we find that properties at risk are sold at an 8.14 % discount compared to non-exposed properties, and the price discount increases to 32.2 % for properties with very high flood risk. By 2080 the flood events are expected to become more frequent and the average flood risk is projected to increase by 8 %. Our empirical model suggests that one percentage point increase in properties' flood risk is associated with a decline of 0.07 % to 0.11 % in both sold and asking property prices. The impact is higher for properties of which flood risk is expected to increase or for regions that have recently experienced a flood event.

在英格兰，每六处房产中就有一处面临洪水风险，其中约有一半的房产属于高风险房产。在本文中，我们研究了英格兰房地产市场价格中是否将洪水概率资本化。我们使用了英国第一大房地产网站 Rightmove 提供的独特的房地产级别数据，以及皇家哈斯康宁公司（Royal HaskoningDHV）Twinn 提供的房地产级别 FloodScoreTM。后者是一种客观洪水风险度量标准，基于单个房产因降雨、河流泛滥和潮汐涌动而被洪水淹没的可能性，被英国贷款机构普遍采用。通过比较我们数据的无条件平均值，我们发现与未暴露于洪水风险的房产相比，暴露于洪水风险的房产的售价折扣为 8.14%，而洪水风险极高的房产的售价折扣则增至 32.2%。到 2080 年，洪水事件预计将变得更加频繁，平均洪水风险预计将增加 8%。我们的实证模型表明，房产洪水风险每增加一个百分点，其售价和要价就会下降 0.07% 至 0.11%。对于洪水风险预计会增加的房产或最近发生过洪水事件的地区，这种影响更大。

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引用次数: 0

Catastrophic fires, human displacement, and real estate prices in California 加州的灾难性火灾、人类流离失所和房地产价格

IF 1.4 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Housing Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2024.102023

Hannah Hennighausen , Alexander James

Millions of people are displaced by natural disasters each year, yet little is known about how evacuees affect host communities. We analyze the migratory effects of the most destructive fire in California history, the 2018 Camp Fire, which destroyed over 18,000 structures and displaced roughly 50,000 people. By merging geospatial information on the fire’s footprint with Zillow’s housing transaction data, we estimate both the spatial and temporal effects of the fire on real estate prices at a granular level. A number of important insights emerge. First, within 25 miles of the fire’s footprint, home prices increased by 13 percent in the six-week aftermath of the fire. Effects decay with distance and are statistically insignificant beyond 100 miles. Second, effects are detected within two weeks of the fire, fully materialize within four weeks, and are persistent up to ten months (which exhausts our period of consideration). Results are consistent with the relocation decisions of evacuees and are robust to a variety of specifications and modeling assumptions.

每年都有数百万人因自然灾害而流离失所，但人们对撤离者如何影响收容社区却知之甚少。我们分析了加州历史上破坏性最大的火灾--2018 年坎普大火（Camp Fire）的迁移影响，这场大火摧毁了 18000 多座建筑，造成约 5 万人流离失所。通过将火灾足迹的地理空间信息与 Zillow 的房屋交易数据合并，我们估算了火灾在空间和时间上对房地产价格的影响。我们得出了一些重要结论。首先，在火灾发生后的六周内，火灾影响范围 25 英里内的房价上涨了 13%。随着距离的增加，影响逐渐减弱，超过 100 英里后，影响在统计上就不显著了。其次，火灾影响在火灾发生后两周内被发现，四周内完全显现，并持续十个月之久（这已超出了我们的考虑范围）。结果与疏散人员的搬迁决定一致，并且对各种规范和建模假设都是稳健的。

引用次数: 0

Housing prices, airport noise and an unforeseeable event of silence 房价、机场噪音和不可预见的沉默事件

IF 1.4 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Housing Economics

Pub Date : 2024-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2024.102026

Philipp Breidenbach , Patrick Thiel

To evaluate the causal impact of noise exposure on housing prices, we exploit a sudden and massive reduction in flight traffic that occurred with the onset of the COVID-19 measures in Germany. Comparing locations differently exposed to pre- pandemic noise with a difference-in-difference approach, we detect a 2.4% increase in prices for apartments that experienced a noise reduction. Disentangling temporal dynamics, we find a peak effect in mid-2021 (up to 6%), with the effect persisting until 2023, albeit at a lower magnitude. In contrast to most evaluations show- ing that the erection of a disamenity affects prices negatively, we show that lifting the burden enables neighborhoods to catch up again immediately. The immediate catch-up contradicts a stickiness of housing prices regarding (temporal) local fac- tors. The temporal pattern shows a clear peak of the effects during the pandemic, which potentially hints at information asymmetries since buyers may not know the non-pandemic noise level during the pandemic.

为了评估噪音暴露对房价的因果影响，我们利用了德国 COVID-19 措施实施时航班流量突然大幅减少的情况。通过差分法比较不同地区受大流行前噪音影响的程度，我们发现噪音降低的公寓价格上涨了 2.4%。在对时间动态进行分解后，我们发现在 2021 年中期出现了一个峰值效应（高达 6%），该效应一直持续到 2023 年，尽管幅度较小。与大多数评估结果表明设立障碍物会对房价产生负面影响不同，我们的研究表明，解除障碍物会使社区房价立即回升。这种立即赶超的现象与当地（时间）因素导致的房价粘性相矛盾。时间模式显示，大流行期间的影响达到了一个明显的峰值，这可能暗示了信息不对称，因为购房者可能不知道大流行期间非大流行的噪音水平。

引用次数: 0

Residents’ willingness to pay to avoid crime 居民为避免犯罪而付费的意愿

IF 1.4 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Housing Economics

Pub Date : 2024-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2024.102024

Alexander Dentler , Enzo Rossi

How much is a resident willing to pay to avoid a crime in the neighborhood? House price changes following a crime do not fully reflect the willingness to pay to avoid crime. Besides prices the market’s liquidity needs to be taken into account in this context. We detect market freezes following shootings, assaults, robberies, and burglaries. We propose a model, supported by empirical evidence, that combines the price and quantity dimensions into a single measure: economic welfare. The willingness to pay depends on the type of crime and averages between 7% and 18% of house valuations. These predictions are manifolds of the effect on prices estimated in this paper (0%–10%) and documented in the literature. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of considering market liquidity when examining the impact of crime on the real estate market.

居民愿意支付多少钱来避免附近发生犯罪？犯罪发生后的房价变化并不能完全反映人们为避免犯罪而支付的意愿。在这种情况下，除了价格，还需要考虑市场的流动性。我们发现了枪击、袭击、抢劫和入室盗窃后的市场冻结现象。我们提出了一个有经验证据支持的模型，该模型将价格和数量维度合并为一个单一的衡量标准：经济福利。支付意愿取决于犯罪类型，平均占房屋估值的 7% 到 18%。这些预测值是本文估算的价格影响（0%-10%）和文献记载的价格影响的数倍。总之，我们的研究结果强调了在研究犯罪对房地产市场的影响时考虑市场流动性的重要性。

引用次数: 0

Unpacking the relation between media sentiment and house prices: A topic modeling approach 解读媒体情绪与房价之间的关系：主题建模方法

IF 1.4 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Housing Economics

Pub Date : 2024-09-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2024.102025

Ernest N. Biktimirov, Tatyana Sokolyk, Anteneh Ayanso

This study uses a topic modeling approach to investigate the relation between news media sentiment and house price movements. By examining real estate related articles published in local newspapers of 16 major cities in Canada and Australia, we find that housing media sentiment has significant relation with future house price movements in the Canadian market but not in the Australian market. We identify the specific topics discussed in news media related to the housing market and report differences in their themes and media sentiment's predictive power between Canada and Australia. This analysis presents novel inferences of qualitative and hard-to-quantify information related to the housing market in two different countries.

本研究采用主题建模法研究新闻媒体情绪与房价走势之间的关系。通过研究加拿大和澳大利亚 16 个主要城市当地报纸上发表的房地产相关文章，我们发现在加拿大市场，住房媒体情绪与未来房价走势有显著关系，而在澳大利亚市场则没有。我们确定了新闻媒体讨论的与房地产市场相关的特定主题，并报告了加拿大和澳大利亚在主题和媒体情绪预测力方面的差异。这项分析对两个不同国家与住房市场相关的定性和难以量化的信息进行了新颖的推断。

引用次数: 0

A cost decomposition of break-even rents for new multifamily housing development 新的多户住宅开发项目盈亏平衡租金的成本分解

IF 1.4 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Housing Economics

Pub Date : 2024-08-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2024.102012

Michael D. Eriksen , Anthony W. Orlando

We decompose the break-even rents of new multifamily housing into three cost components — land prices, construction costs, and financial capital — for 50 of the largest cities in the United States from 2012 to 2020. This is accomplished by combining existing data on land prices and income capitalization rates with a new data series on local historical pricing of required construction components of complete buildings called “assemblies”. For both 3-story, wood-framed buildings and 12-story, steel-framed buildings, we find that construction costs contribute significantly to the growth of break-even rents, and the relative contribution of construction costs exceeds that of land values for the taller buildings. Meanwhile, cap rates have declined, mediating the effect of development costs on the rents borne by tenants. Overall, there is significant variation in rent growth across cities that can be explained by these three cost factors.

我们将美国 50 个最大城市 2012 年至 2020 年新建多户住宅的盈亏平衡租金分解为三个成本组成部分--土地价格、建筑成本和金融资本。为此，我们将现有的土地价格和收入资本化率数据与被称为 "组件 "的完整建筑所需建筑组件的当地历史定价的新数据系列相结合。我们发现，对于 3 层木结构建筑和 12 层钢结构建筑而言，建筑成本对盈亏平衡租金的增长贡献显著，而且对于较高的建筑而言，建筑成本的相对贡献超过了土地价值。与此同时，上限利率也有所下降，从而调节了开发成本对租户所承担租金的影响。总体而言，这三个成本因素可以解释不同城市租金增长的显著差异。

引用次数: 0

What determines the success of housing mobility programs? 是什么决定了住房流动计划的成功？

IF 1.4 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Housing Economics

Pub Date : 2024-07-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2024.102009

Dionissi Aliprantis , Hal Martin , Kristen Tauber

Housing Mobility Programs (HMPs) support residential mobility to reduce economic segregation. One design feature of HMPs requires identifying areas to which moving will most improve outcomes. We show that ranking neighborhoods’ effects using current residents’ outcomes has strengths over using previous residents’ outcomes due to statistical uncertainty, bias from sorting over time, and lack of support. We simulate how the choice of neighborhood ranking and others affect an originally-intended outcome of HMPs: reducing racial segregation. HMP success on this dimension depends on the ability to port vouchers across jurisdictions, access to cars, and the range of neighborhoods targeted.

住房流动计划（HMPs）支持住宅流动，以减少经济隔离。住房流动计划的一个设计特点是要求确定哪些地区的居民搬迁最能改善结果。我们的研究表明，由于统计上的不确定性、随着时间推移而产生的排序偏差以及缺乏支持，使用当前居民的结果对社区效果进行排序比使用以前居民的结果更有优势。我们模拟了社区排名的选择及其他因素如何影响 HMP 的初衷结果：减少种族隔离。在这一层面上，HMP 的成功与否取决于跨辖区移植住房券的能力、汽车的使用以及目标社区的范围。

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Journal of Housing Economics

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