Pub Date : 2026-01-09DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102117
Christopher D. Cotton
The price of shelter is an important component of price indexes, comprising 44.3 percent of core CPI. I explore the determinants of shelter inflation. I focus especially on the “rent gap,” defined as the gap between new-tenant rents and the price of shelter, which comprises all-tenant rents. The rent gap varies over time because all-tenant rents evolve more slowly than new-tenant rents. I demonstrate that the rent gap is a key determinant of the evolution of shelter inflation. I show that out-of-sample predictions of shelter inflation that include the rent gap perform much better than existing models, especially in periods when the gap is large. I explore the implications of this finding for the current policy environment.
{"title":"Understanding CPI shelter inflation: The importance of the new-tenant/all-tenant rent gap","authors":"Christopher D. Cotton","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102117","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102117","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The price of shelter is an important component of price indexes, comprising 44.3 percent of core CPI. I explore the determinants of shelter inflation. I focus especially on the “rent gap,” defined as the gap between new-tenant rents and the price of shelter, which comprises all-tenant rents. The rent gap varies over time because all-tenant rents evolve more slowly than new-tenant rents. I demonstrate that the rent gap is a key determinant of the evolution of shelter inflation. I show that out-of-sample predictions of shelter inflation that include the rent gap perform much better than existing models, especially in periods when the gap is large. I explore the implications of this finding for the current policy environment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"71 ","pages":"Article 102117"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145977432","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-07DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2026.102121
Bennie D. Waller , Lingxiao Li
This study addresses the factors affecting dual agency, a key principal-agent conflict in residential brokerage. We identify commission splits, pricing strategies, contract duration, and search costs as the key determinants shaping listing brokers’ incentives to promote internal rather than cross-agency matches. The empirical results confirm our theoretical predictions regarding these agency problems. Properties with the lowest commission splits (<2.0%) exhibit a 57.6%-point higher predicted probability of dual-agency transactions compared to the omitted category (commission splits >3%). Pricing effects are tiered: lower-priced homes are less likely to transact via dual agency, while moderate- and higher-priced homes exhibit significantly higher probabilities (up to 36.1%). Furthermore, longer listing contract durations and higher search costs for external brokers (e.g., limited MLS information and “hip-pocket” listings) both statistically increase the likelihood of internal matches. These results indicate that dual-agency outcomes are shaped not merely by search frictions but also by contractual and informational levers under the listing broker’s control, with important implications for brokerage regulation, information disclosure, and consumer protection in housing markets.
{"title":"Determinants of dual agency transactions: broker steering, consumer behavior, or market frictions?","authors":"Bennie D. Waller , Lingxiao Li","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2026.102121","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2026.102121","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study addresses the factors affecting dual agency, a key principal-agent conflict in residential brokerage. We identify commission splits, pricing strategies, contract duration, and search costs as the key determinants shaping listing brokers’ incentives to promote internal rather than cross-agency matches. The empirical results confirm our theoretical predictions regarding these agency problems. Properties with the lowest commission splits (<2.0%) exhibit a 57.6%-point higher predicted probability of dual-agency transactions compared to the omitted category (commission splits >3%). Pricing effects are tiered: lower-priced homes are less likely to transact via dual agency, while moderate- and higher-priced homes exhibit significantly higher probabilities (up to 36.1%). Furthermore, longer listing contract durations and higher search costs for external brokers (e.g., limited MLS information and “hip-pocket” listings) both statistically increase the likelihood of internal matches. These results indicate that dual-agency outcomes are shaped not merely by search frictions but also by contractual and informational levers under the listing broker’s control, with important implications for brokerage regulation, information disclosure, and consumer protection in housing markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"71 ","pages":"Article 102121"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145977434","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-04DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2026.102119
Pekka Sagner
This paper analyses the impact of the energy price shock following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 on housing market dynamics in Germany, focusing on the price differences between the most energy-efficient dwellings (MEED) and less energy-efficient dwellings (LEED). Using a difference-in-differences approach and a comprehensive housing market dataset, the study finds that LEED have seen relative price declines in the purchase and rental market, reflecting a growing premium for energy efficiency. The analysis reveals heterogeneity across regions, property types, and years of construction. The paper contributes to the literature on energy price premiums in the housing sector, providing empirical insights into how rising energy costs and policy measures, such as the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) and CO2 pricing, may shape long-term housing market dynamics. The findings additionally indicate that energy efficiency plays a more significant role in housing valuations, carrying important implications for housing policy and market stability in the short and long term.
{"title":"Energy price shock and housing market dynamics: Evidence from Germany","authors":"Pekka Sagner","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2026.102119","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2026.102119","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper analyses the impact of the energy price shock following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 on housing market dynamics in Germany, focusing on the price differences between the most energy-efficient dwellings (MEED) and less energy-efficient dwellings (LEED). Using a difference-in-differences approach and a comprehensive housing market dataset, the study finds that LEED have seen relative price declines in the purchase and rental market, reflecting a growing premium for energy efficiency. The analysis reveals heterogeneity across regions, property types, and years of construction. The paper contributes to the literature on energy price premiums in the housing sector, providing empirical insights into how rising energy costs and policy measures, such as the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) and CO<sub>2</sub> pricing, may shape long-term housing market dynamics. The findings additionally indicate that energy efficiency plays a more significant role in housing valuations, carrying important implications for housing policy and market stability in the short and long term.</div><div>Subject classification codes: R31 - Housing Supply and Markets; Q41 - Energy: Demand and Supply – Prices; D12 - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"71 ","pages":"Article 102119"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145939018","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-30DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102118
Simone Cima , Joseph Kopecky
Policymakers are grappling with widening disparities in income and wealth. For most households, housing assets constitute the largest component of wealth. While housing has been extensively studied in the heterogeneous-agent macroeconomic literature, there is limited guidance on the distributional consequences of housing policy. This paper studies the relative impacts of a range of housing policies on inequality and welfare. We develop and estimate a quantitative life-cycle model in which households endogenously choose between renting and owning, and may become landlords. The model allows us to assess the distributional effects of borrower-based macroprudential limits, institutional investor participation in rental markets, rental income taxation, and housing supply policies. Calibrated to the Irish housing market, the model quantifies policy impacts on homeownership, welfare across the wealth distribution, and broad measures of income, wealth, and consumption inequality. We show that the distributional effects of housing policies depend critically on credit conditions: policies that appear regressive or benign in isolation can have markedly different, and in some cases reversed, effects under tight versus loose credit regimes.
{"title":"Housing policy, homeownership, and inequality","authors":"Simone Cima , Joseph Kopecky","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102118","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102118","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Policymakers are grappling with widening disparities in income and wealth. For most households, housing assets constitute the largest component of wealth. While housing has been extensively studied in the heterogeneous-agent macroeconomic literature, there is limited guidance on the distributional consequences of housing policy. This paper studies the relative impacts of a range of housing policies on inequality and welfare. We develop and estimate a quantitative life-cycle model in which households endogenously choose between renting and owning, and may become landlords. The model allows us to assess the distributional effects of borrower-based macroprudential limits, institutional investor participation in rental markets, rental income taxation, and housing supply policies. Calibrated to the Irish housing market, the model quantifies policy impacts on homeownership, welfare across the wealth distribution, and broad measures of income, wealth, and consumption inequality. We show that the distributional effects of housing policies depend critically on credit conditions: policies that appear regressive or benign in isolation can have markedly different, and in some cases reversed, effects under tight versus loose credit regimes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"71 ","pages":"Article 102118"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145939019","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-19DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102116
Xiaoyu Li , Sathya Gopalakrishnan , H. Allen Klaiber
Understanding the economic and geophysical drivers of housing redevelopment is a critical missing piece for evaluating growth in the built environment in densely developed coastal communities. Using parcel-level panel data and high-resolution satellite imagery for North Carolina’s barrier islands (1994–2013), we estimate how episodic shocks (hurricanes) and chronic stressors (shoreline erosion) shape both the likelihood of redevelopment and the rebuilt area. On average, exposure to both types of hazards lowers the probability that a parcel is redeveloped, but this effect varies by location. Oceanfront properties affected by hurricanes or facing high erosion are more likely to be redeveloped. When redevelopment occurs, owners typically replace the existing structure with a larger one: floor area, number of stories, and amenity features (e.g., pools) all increase relative to both the pre-existing building and nearby homes that were not redeveloped. Our findings show that redevelopment concentrates larger, higher-valued homes in the most hazard-prone areas, thereby increasing capital exposure to risks. This spatial pattern of intensified development in high-risk locations underscores the need for coastal management strategies that explicitly address location-specific incentives driving redevelopment and their consequences for long-term community resilience.
{"title":"Coastal hazards and bigger rebuilds: Spatial drivers of housing redevelopment","authors":"Xiaoyu Li , Sathya Gopalakrishnan , H. Allen Klaiber","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102116","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102116","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the economic and geophysical drivers of housing redevelopment is a critical missing piece for evaluating growth in the built environment in densely developed coastal communities. Using parcel-level panel data and high-resolution satellite imagery for North Carolina’s barrier islands (1994–2013), we estimate how episodic shocks (hurricanes) and chronic stressors (shoreline erosion) shape both the likelihood of redevelopment and the rebuilt area. On average, exposure to both types of hazards lowers the probability that a parcel is redeveloped, but this effect varies by location. Oceanfront properties affected by hurricanes or facing high erosion are more likely to be redeveloped. When redevelopment occurs, owners typically replace the existing structure with a larger one: floor area, number of stories, and amenity features (e.g., pools) all increase relative to both the pre-existing building and nearby homes that were not redeveloped. Our findings show that redevelopment concentrates larger, higher-valued homes in the most hazard-prone areas, thereby increasing capital exposure to risks. This spatial pattern of intensified development in high-risk locations underscores the need for coastal management strategies that explicitly address location-specific incentives driving redevelopment and their consequences for long-term community resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"71 ","pages":"Article 102116"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145884508","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-17DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102115
Dirk W. Early , Edgar O. Olsen
This paper is the first to provide evidence on several key aspects of the comparative performance of the major types of housing assistance in the U.S. – HUD’s public housing and housing voucher programs, its largest programs that subsidize the operation of privately owned housing projects, and a set of other programs dominated by low-income housing tax credits. The aspects studied are the effects of the programs on the overall desirability of the housing and neighborhoods occupied by their participants, their aggregate consumption of non-housing goods and services, their net benefit to the decisionmakers in these households, the taxpayer cost incurred to provide these benefits, and the difference in mean benefits across recipients and eligible households with different demographic characteristics. The primary data is from the 2013 American Housing Survey national sample that identifies the type of housing assistance received by most households. The results provide important evidence on a broad set of short run costs and benefits of major housing programs. We find that all forms of housing assistance led to a much greater percentage increase in recipient consumption of non-housing goods than in their consumption of housing services. The difference is most pronounced for HUD’s public housing program. The benefit to the recipient household head per dollar of taxpayer cost is much larger for the housing voucher program than for HUD’s public housing program or its largest programs that subsidize the operation of privately owned projects. It is even smaller for households in tax credit units without HUD rental assistance. The results provide important evidence on a broad though not comprehensive set of short run costs and benefits of major housing programs. In doing so, we provide a rich basis for continued analysis of the effects of housing assistance.
{"title":"The effects of U.S. low-income housing programs on recipient consumption and wellbeing","authors":"Dirk W. Early , Edgar O. Olsen","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102115","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102115","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper is the first to provide evidence on several key aspects of the comparative performance of the major types of housing assistance in the U.S. – HUD’s public housing and housing voucher programs, its largest programs that subsidize the operation of privately owned housing projects, and a set of other programs dominated by low-income housing tax credits. The aspects studied are the effects of the programs on the overall desirability of the housing and neighborhoods occupied by their participants, their aggregate consumption of non-housing goods and services, their net benefit to the decisionmakers in these households, the taxpayer cost incurred to provide these benefits, and the difference in mean benefits across recipients and eligible households with different demographic characteristics. The primary data is from the 2013 American Housing Survey national sample that identifies the type of housing assistance received by most households. The results provide important evidence on a broad set of short run costs and benefits of major housing programs. We find that all forms of housing assistance led to a much greater percentage increase in recipient consumption of non-housing goods than in their consumption of housing services. The difference is most pronounced for HUD’s public housing program. The benefit to the recipient household head per dollar of taxpayer cost is much larger for the housing voucher program than for HUD’s public housing program or its largest programs that subsidize the operation of privately owned projects. It is even smaller for households in tax credit units without HUD rental assistance. The results provide important evidence on a broad though not comprehensive set of short run costs and benefits of major housing programs. In doing so, we provide a rich basis for continued analysis of the effects of housing assistance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"71 ","pages":"Article 102115"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145884509","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-12DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102114
Nini Barth , Andreas Benedictow , Erling Røed Larsen
We interpret upzoning as an effort of a municipality to allow more housing area on a given space, and propose that a housing Tobin’s Q (HTQ), the ratio of house prices on replacement costs, is an inverse indicator of that effort. To acquire estimates of the HTQ, we exploit data from a cross-section of Norwegian housing markets and inspect whether markets produce single-family homes at prices that are aligned with the replacement costs. In the short run, the two valuations, house prices and replacement costs, may deviate significantly. In the long run, well-functioning markets should ensure that they converge. If the HTQ is (considerably) above unity over a period of time, it could indicate boundaries to supply, i.e. the presence of regulations that prevent land development, i.e. an absence of upzoning. We observe substantial differences in the HTQ over time in a given market and across cities at given time. To probe deeper into the supply side mechanisms, and to understand the obstacles to supply, we use tear-down sales to estimate regional land prices and accounting data to estimate markups for developers. We compare the estimated HTQ with a Housing Construction Facilitation Ranking (HCFR), which includes measures of zoning and regulation, for a cross-section of Norwegian municipalities. We find a clear association between a high estimated HTQ and a low score on HCFR.
{"title":"Linking housing Tobin’s Q to zoning, regulation and land prices","authors":"Nini Barth , Andreas Benedictow , Erling Røed Larsen","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102114","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102114","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We interpret upzoning as an effort of a municipality to allow more housing area on a given space, and propose that a housing Tobin’s Q (HTQ), the ratio of house prices on replacement costs, is an inverse indicator of that effort. To acquire estimates of the HTQ, we exploit data from a cross-section of Norwegian housing markets and inspect whether markets produce single-family homes at prices that are aligned with the replacement costs. In the short run, the two valuations, house prices and replacement costs, may deviate significantly. In the long run, well-functioning markets should ensure that they converge. If the HTQ is (considerably) above unity over a period of time, it could indicate boundaries to supply, i.e. the presence of regulations that prevent land development, i.e. an absence of upzoning. We observe substantial differences in the HTQ over time in a given market and across cities at given time. To probe deeper into the supply side mechanisms, and to understand the obstacles to supply, we use tear-down sales to estimate regional land prices and accounting data to estimate markups for developers. We compare the estimated HTQ with a Housing Construction Facilitation Ranking (HCFR), which includes measures of zoning and regulation, for a cross-section of Norwegian municipalities. We find a clear association between a high estimated HTQ and a low score on HCFR.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"71 ","pages":"Article 102114"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145798113","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102111
Pierre Vincent
This article examines the relationship between urban overheating and housing prices, positioning urban overheating as an environmental dis-amenity with direct implications for the quality of life and health of urban residents. By reducing the attractiveness of affected neighborhoods, urban overheating is expected to negatively affect housing prices. A key contribution of this study is the use of the original micro-climatic Thermocity dataset, which provides high-resolution nighttime land surface temperature data derived from satellite observations over a set of four French urban areas. Housing data are sourced from an exhaustive dataset of housing transactions for the period 2013–2019, which provides detailed information on housing prices and characteristics. To address the potential endogeneity of local urban overheating, an instrumental variable approach is employed, leveraging wind speed as an instrument for land surface temperature. Results from the 2SLS estimation reveal a significant negative effect of urban overheating on housing prices: a 1 °C increase in urban overheating is associated with a 2.2% decrease in housing prices. Moreover, the analysis highlights substantial variations in the effect across urban units considered in this study. The robustness of these results is confirmed using alternative measures of urban overheating from other data sources.
{"title":"Does urban overheating affect neighborhood attractiveness? Evidence from the French housing market","authors":"Pierre Vincent","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102111","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102111","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article examines the relationship between urban overheating and housing prices, positioning urban overheating as an environmental dis-amenity with direct implications for the quality of life and health of urban residents. By reducing the attractiveness of affected neighborhoods, urban overheating is expected to negatively affect housing prices. A key contribution of this study is the use of the original micro-climatic Thermocity dataset, which provides high-resolution nighttime land surface temperature data derived from satellite observations over a set of four French urban areas. Housing data are sourced from an exhaustive dataset of housing transactions for the period 2013–2019, which provides detailed information on housing prices and characteristics. To address the potential endogeneity of local urban overheating, an instrumental variable approach is employed, leveraging wind speed as an instrument for land surface temperature. Results from the 2SLS estimation reveal a significant negative effect of urban overheating on housing prices: a 1 °C increase in urban overheating is associated with a 2.2% decrease in housing prices. Moreover, the analysis highlights substantial variations in the effect across urban units considered in this study. The robustness of these results is confirmed using alternative measures of urban overheating from other data sources.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"71 ","pages":"Article 102111"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145652087","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-19DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102104
Nicholas Forster-Benson, Karim Nchare
Empirical research on the impact of upzoning policies on housing affordability has produced mixed results. This paper uses difference-in-differences and matching methods to analyze the effects of the 2010 upzoning of downtown Nashville over the period 2000–2023. We find a significant increase in the average price of the treated parcels relative to similar untreated parcels. Estimated quantile treatment effects reveal that price decreases are concentrated at the upper end of the house price distribution, while upzoned parcels at the lower end experience price increases due to positive amenities and retained investment. Our findings underscore the importance of considering heterogeneity when designing and evaluating upzoning policies.
{"title":"Upzoning and residential transaction price in Nashville","authors":"Nicholas Forster-Benson, Karim Nchare","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102104","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102104","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Empirical research on the impact of upzoning policies on housing affordability has produced mixed results. This paper uses difference-in-differences and matching methods to analyze the effects of the 2010 upzoning of downtown Nashville over the period 2000–2023. We find a significant increase in the average price of the treated parcels relative to similar untreated parcels. Estimated quantile treatment effects reveal that price decreases are concentrated at the upper end of the house price distribution, while upzoned parcels at the lower end experience price increases due to positive amenities and retained investment. Our findings underscore the importance of considering heterogeneity when designing and evaluating upzoning policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"70 ","pages":"Article 102104"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-11-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145578861","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-10DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102102
Wenhao Hu , Lili Wang
This paper evaluates the impact of subway expansion on urban spatial structure, population size, and welfare in the presence of land use regulation. We utilize a newly-constructed, spatially-disaggregated dataset for Beijing and a spatial equilibrium model that incorporates endogenous location choices within a city and frictional migration across cities. Our quantitative study reveals that subway expansion contributes to residential population decentralization, city size expansion, and overall welfare gains. Beijing’s new subway lines from 2011 to 2020 resulted in an 8.42% increase in suburban residential population, a 2.71% increase in total population, and a 2.62% increase in welfare. However, land use policies restrict housing supply around subway stations, hinder workers’ relocation to capitalize on improved commuting convenience, and dampen the wider benefits from transit systems. The gains in total population and welfare from subway expansion will be amplified if there is an increased supply of floor space around subway stations. Our research highlights the necessity of pursuing unified transit and land use policies to build a bigger and better city.
{"title":"Building the metropolis: Subway expansion, land use regulation, and welfare","authors":"Wenhao Hu , Lili Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102102","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102102","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper evaluates the impact of subway expansion on urban spatial structure, population size, and welfare in the presence of land use regulation. We utilize a newly-constructed, spatially-disaggregated dataset for Beijing and a spatial equilibrium model that incorporates endogenous location choices within a city and frictional migration across cities. Our quantitative study reveals that subway expansion contributes to residential population decentralization, city size expansion, and overall welfare gains. Beijing’s new subway lines from 2011 to 2020 resulted in an 8.42% increase in suburban residential population, a 2.71% increase in total population, and a 2.62% increase in welfare. However, land use policies restrict housing supply around subway stations, hinder workers’ relocation to capitalize on improved commuting convenience, and dampen the wider benefits from transit systems. The gains in total population and welfare from subway expansion will be amplified if there is an increased supply of floor space around subway stations. Our research highlights the necessity of pursuing unified transit and land use policies to build a bigger and better city.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"70 ","pages":"Article 102102"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145333150","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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