{"title":"Weakened and Lowered Sensitivity of Extreme Precipitation Over the Global Land Monsoon Regions During the Last Glacial Maximum","authors":"Xiaohan Kong, Qing Yan, Ting Wei","doi":"10.1029/2024GL110867","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) provides an opportunity to estimate how extreme precipitation may respond to large radiative forcing and hence the constraints for its future behavior. Using daily outputs from the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project, we illustrate a decrease in extreme precipitation intensity over the global monsoon regions during the LGM relative to preindustrial, accompanied by increased extreme precipitation frequency, although regional differences exist. The weakened extreme precipitation is dominated by the thermodynamics (∼92%) linked to change in temperature, with the dynamic component linked to change in vertical velocity contributing to regional differences. Furthermore, we show a ∼3.6% decrease in extreme precipitation per 1°C cooling during the LGM, lower than the sensitivity (∼5%/°C) in future warming scenarios. Our results are in line with the proxies-based drier conditions and lower equilibrium climate sensitivity during the LGM, and may advance understanding of extreme precipitation variation in a warmer future.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"51 23","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024GL110867","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Geophysical Research Letters","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024GL110867","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) provides an opportunity to estimate how extreme precipitation may respond to large radiative forcing and hence the constraints for its future behavior. Using daily outputs from the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project, we illustrate a decrease in extreme precipitation intensity over the global monsoon regions during the LGM relative to preindustrial, accompanied by increased extreme precipitation frequency, although regional differences exist. The weakened extreme precipitation is dominated by the thermodynamics (∼92%) linked to change in temperature, with the dynamic component linked to change in vertical velocity contributing to regional differences. Furthermore, we show a ∼3.6% decrease in extreme precipitation per 1°C cooling during the LGM, lower than the sensitivity (∼5%/°C) in future warming scenarios. Our results are in line with the proxies-based drier conditions and lower equilibrium climate sensitivity during the LGM, and may advance understanding of extreme precipitation variation in a warmer future.
期刊介绍:
Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) publishes high-impact, innovative, and timely research on major scientific advances in all the major geoscience disciplines. Papers are communications-length articles and should have broad and immediate implications in their discipline or across the geosciences. GRLmaintains the fastest turn-around of all high-impact publications in the geosciences and works closely with authors to ensure broad visibility of top papers.