Conv-ELSTM: An ensemble deep learning approach for predicting short-term wind power

Abstract

Accurate and reliable forecasting of wind power is essential for the stable integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. However, the chaotic nature of wind power presents a significant challenge in utilizing data for effective short-term forecasting, such as 60-min predictions. This article introduces a hybrid data-driven framework that employs an ensemble deep learning model to provide highly precise short-term wind power predictions. The framework leverages a data-driven approach to identify the intrinsic components of wind power data, including high-frequency and low-frequency components. A convolutional layer-based feature fusion network is then established to properly extract important information from irrelevant wind energy features. Subsequently, an ensemble of long short-term memory (LSTM) networks is developed to forecast wind power using the fused features, thereby mitigating the disadvantage of a single prediction model. The numerical experiment is carried out based on two different real-life datasets. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in forecasting short-term wind power compared to five benchmarks.