Hospital population density and risk of respiratory infection: Is close contact density dependent?

Abstract

Respiratory infections acquired in hospital depend on close contact, which may be affected by hospital population density. Models of infectious disease transmission typically assume that contact rates are independent of density (frequency dependence) or proportional to it (linear density dependence), without justification. We evaluate these assumptions by measuring contact rates in hospitals under different population densities. We analysed data from a study in 15 wards in which staff, patients and visitors carried wearable sensors which detected close contacts. We proposed a general model, non-linear density dependence, and fit this to data on several types of interactions. Finally, we projected the fitted models to predict the effect of increasing population density on epidemic risk. We identified considerable heterogeneity in density dependence between wards, even those with the same medical specialty. Interactions between all persons present usually depended little on the population density. However, increasing patient density was associated with higher rates of patient contact for staff and for other patients. Simulations suggested that a 10 % increase in patient population density would carry a markedly increased risk in many wards. This study highlights the variance in density dependent dynamics and the complexity of predicting contact rates.