Triggering of a 2500-year coral shutdown in northern South China Sea by coupled East Asian Monsoon and El Niño–Southern Oscillation

Abstract

Rapid climate change is reshaping the ecological dynamics of coral reefs, posing significant challenges in understanding the long-term effects of environmental disturbances on reef development. In the current study, we conducted a chronological analysis and regional review of Holocene massive Porites corals in the northern South China Sea, revealing a unique episodic growth pattern, including a 2500-year growth hiatus. The findings suggest that this collapse was driven by the coupling of intensified East Asian winter monsoon and broader-scale El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability. Regional environmental drivers significantly influenced spatiotemporal variations in coral growth stagnation across the Pan-Pacific region. While future sea level rise and warming may benefit nearshore corals, the projected intensification of El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability could undermine the potential of the northern South China Sea as a coral refuge. Effective coral management and environmental mitigation measures are crucial to preventing further collapse of regional coral reefs.