[Impact of climate change on the potential geographical distribution of Hippophae rhamnoides subsp. sinensis].

Abstract

Hippophae rhamnoides subsp. sinensis is an important resource plant with considerable medicinal, economic, and ecological value, and an indicator species in the transition zones between forests and grasslands. Predicting the potential geographic distribution of H. rhamnoides subsp. sinensis under climate change can reveal the responses of China's grassland and forest to global climate change, which is of significance for the conservation and development of its resources. We utilized distribution data of H. rhamnoides subsp. sinensis to predict its suitable habitats under future climate change based on the Biomod2 ensemble model, and analyzed the trend of land use type change in these habitats in conjunction with remote sensing data of land use types in China in 2020. The results showed that the Biomod2 ensemble model significantly improved the accuracy and precision of predicting H. rhamnoides subsp. sinensis compared to single models. The distribution of H. rhamnoides subsp. sinensis was primarily concentrated on both sides of the diagonal from Liaoning to Tibet, situated in forest-grassland ecotone. Under the SSP126 scenario, the suitable habitats for H. rhamnoides subsp. sinensis would initially expand and then contract. Under the SSP585 scenario, they would show a continuous expansion trend. In the context of global warming, the suitable habitats for H. rhamnoides subsp. sinensis would expand. By 2050 and 2070, the area of suitable habitats for H. rhamnoides subsp. sinensis in grasslands would increase, while areas currently occupied by forests, croplands, and developed land would continue to decrease. Under future climate change, the distribution center of H. rhamnoides subsp. sinensis would migrate towards higher-altitude grassland areas. Among the environmental factors affecting the distribution of H. rhamnoides subsp. sinensis, climate variables were predominant, with the highest contribution of rainfall during the warmest season.