Prediction of the potential distribution area of endangered medicinal plant Gymnadenia conopsea in China under the background of climate change.

Abstract

Gymnadenia conopsea is an endangered medicinal plant. Due to climate change and human activities, as well as the low reproductive capacity, the wild resources of G. conopsea are extremely scarce and it has been listed in the Chinese National Second Level Protected Plant List. Predicting the potential suitable distribution area of G. conopsea is crucial for the conservation and sustainable utilization. With climate and soil data from 118 distribution points, we used MaxEnt model combined with ArcGIS technology to predict the suitable distribution area of G. conopsea in China under future climate change. The results showed that the area value (ACU) under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was 0.808, indicating good prediction performance. The main environmental factors affecting the distribution of G. conopsea were mean temperature of the warmest quarter, seasonal precipita-tion, soil factors such as the subsoil sodicity (30-100 cm), topsoil gravel (0-30 cm), subsoil cation exchange capacity (30-100 cm), annual precipitation and precipitation of the driest month. At present, the potential total suitable distribution area of G. conopsea in China was about 50.22×10⁵ km², concentrated in north, northeast and southwest China, including Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Sichuan, Shanxi and Southeast Xizang. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable habitat range would shrink, and migrate to higher altitude regions such as Xizang, Yunnan, and Sichuan, indicating that global warming may pose a threat. This result could provide scientific basis for the ecological protection, resource development, and sustainable utilization strategies of G. conopsea germplasm resources.