Amplified Bimodal Distribution of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Lifetime Maximum Intensity

IF 4.6 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-01-22 DOI:10.1029/2024GL111637
Qian Xiang, Haikun Zhao, Philip J. Klotzbach, Tonghua Su, Chao Wang, Liguang Wu
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Abstract

The impact of a warming climate on tropical cyclones (TCs) remains unclear. Here, we find that the probability density function for western North Pacific TC lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) has an amplified bimodal distribution in recent years. This change implies a trend toward more extreme TCs and fewer moderate TCs. Changes in the TC LMI distribution are associated with alterations in the occurrence of rapidly intensifying TCs. Changes in TC tracks, due to alterations in the steering flow linked to a weakening Hadley cell, cause more TCs to move northwestward into a more favorable environment for intensification with large ocean heat content. Consequently, more rapidly intensifying TCs reach higher intensities, significantly contributing to the observed amplified bimodal distribution. These findings provide new insights into changes in TC intensity and highlight the increasing threat to coastal areas from more intense TCs in a warming climate.

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西北太平洋热带气旋一生最大强度的放大双峰分布
气候变暖对热带气旋(tc)的影响尚不清楚。研究发现,近年来北太平洋西部TC寿命最大强度(LMI)的概率密度函数呈放大的双峰分布。这一变化表明,极端tc越来越多,中等tc越来越少。TC LMI分布的变化与TC发生的变化有关。由于哈德利单体减弱导致转向流的改变,TC路径的变化导致更多TC向西北移动,进入一个更有利于海洋热含量增加的环境。因此,更快增强的tc达到更高的强度,显著促进了观测到的放大双峰分布。这些发现为研究TC强度的变化提供了新的见解,并强调了在气候变暖的情况下,更强烈的TC对沿海地区的威胁越来越大。
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来源期刊
Geophysical Research Letters
Geophysical Research Letters 地学-地球科学综合
CiteScore
9.00
自引率
9.60%
发文量
1588
审稿时长
2.2 months
期刊介绍: Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) publishes high-impact, innovative, and timely research on major scientific advances in all the major geoscience disciplines. Papers are communications-length articles and should have broad and immediate implications in their discipline or across the geosciences. GRLmaintains the fastest turn-around of all high-impact publications in the geosciences and works closely with authors to ensure broad visibility of top papers.
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