Land use and land cover conflict risk assessment model: Social and spatial impact of suburbanisation

Abstract

Today’s cities grow at the interface of urbanised and open areas. Their impact zones depend on their size and role in the settlement structure. Unplanned urban growth often leads to land-use patterns that conflict with sustainable development principles. This can spark local land use and land cover (LULC) conflicts.

The study aims to build an original model for assessing the risk of LULC conflicts. The model is founded on identifying the Risk Source (spatial and social determinants of conflicts), Risk Receptor (component indicators developed by the authors) and Risk Effect (level of conflict risk) in public perception. The integrated spatial and social approach is a novel concept for investigating LULC conflicts. The goal was achieved through spatial analyses combined with surveys among residents of municipalities around Kraków and among administration officers, directors, and chiefs of departments in these municipalities. The spatial analyses of land cover employed geoprocessing algorithms and GIS tools. The periurban zone of Kraków was investigated using an original methodology. The results demonstrate that suburbanisation contributes to LULC conflicts, with agricultural areas being the most susceptible to the problem. The conclusions are based on a model analysis and investigation of human-landscape interactions. The proposed LULC conflict risk assessment model combines spatial characteristics and their public perception. With this specific approach, we address a research gap that is the shortage of research integrating spatial and social approaches to LULC conflicts in periurban areas.