Potential impacts of future climate on twelve key multipurpose tree species in Benin: Insights from species distribution modeling for biodiversity conservation

Abstract

The global decline of biodiversity threatens ecosystem stability and human well-being. This study modeled the future suitable habitats of twelve key multipurpose tree species (MPTS) in Benin under two climate scenarios, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 245 (SSP245) and 585 (SSP585), based on a 2070 horizon. The research focused on peri‑urban areas (Cotonou, Abomey, Savalou, Parakou, Natitingou, and Kandi) and the protected areas network in Benin. We evaluated environmental variables influencing MPTS distribution, projected habitat changes, identified hotspots, and compared impacts on native versus non-native species. Four modelling algorithms—Generalized Additive Models, Generalized Linear Models, Maximum Entropy, and Random Forest—were used. Climate factors, particularly isothermality (Bio3) and annual precipitation (Bio12), predominantly influenced the distribution of the studied species. The models performed well, with a mean Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.88 and a mean True Skill Statistic (TSS) of 0.64. Projections indicated a decline in suitable habitats for 67 % of species, minor changes for 8 %, and increases for 25 %. The effectiveness of protected areas was mixed, with species showing varied responses. Savalou and Abomey peri‑urban areas emerged as key conservation hotspots, underscoring the need to shift conservation focus to these areas. Native species showed greater resilience to future climate conditions, emphasizing the importance of native species and species-specific conservation strategies under changing climates. These findings are relevant for promoting MPTS in Sub-Saharan Africa for sustainable ecological and socio-economic development.