Perspectives on black swans and complexity: Practical implication to Natech risks in China

Abstract

Black Swans are high-impact low-probability events (HILPs) and are considered too complex to cope with because of their unpredictability, uncertainty, and ambiguity. Natech risks are serious and endanger the population, the economy, and the environment, which is often associated with Black Swans as an excuse for failures in safety management. Based on systems thinking, the Complexity Landscape Model (CLM) of Black Swans was developed to identify their root causes of complexity through the Cynefin framework and regional disaster system theory. Black Swans usually occur when the hazard factors and hazard-formative environments are in chaos. Taking China as an example, case statistics and social network analysis were used to examine the intricate origins and evolutionary paths of Natech events. The results showed that technological incidents triggered by natural disasters are typically caused by human errors and inadequate application of state-of-the-art knowledge. They are foreseeable and mitigable and cannot be regarded as Black Swans. We contend that the Natech risk resilience network should be constructed based on systematic evaluation, highlighting the application of multi-disciplinary and crosscutting information; supported by departmental cooperation, emphasizing the flexibility and redundancy of disposal; and safeguarded by resource consolidation, underlining the effectiveness and breadth of participation.