Environmental change and migration aspirations: Evidence from Bangladesh

Abstract

The argument that environmental stress is an important driver of migration has gained renewed attention amidst increasing climatic changes. This study examines whether and how two distinct environmental stressors influence migration aspirations among affected populations. Our analysis relies on two waves of original survey data of 1,594 households residing in 36 villages along the 250 km of the Jamuna River in Bangladesh, an area heavily impacted by floods and riverbank erosion. The results reveal that riverbank erosion – a long-term environmental event causing permanent destruction – increases aspirations for internal, permanent migration by about 15 percentage points, 4 to 6 months after the occurrence. In contrast, sudden and short-term events, like floods, which have a more temporary impact, do not affect migration aspirations. These results suggest that the type of environmental event shapes adaptation strategies, with migration emerging as a viable response to more severe and lasting events such as erosion. This entails important policy implications regarding the effects of climate change on future patterns of internal migration and highlights that most affected individuals prefer to adapt to environmental stress in situ or within close proximity.