A mathematical programming approach for assessing the impact of climate change on Mediterranean farming systems: A Tunisian case study

Abstract

The paper aims to assess the short-term effects of climate change on economic and social performance of selected farming systems in Tunisia. The purpose is to analyze the evolution of land use and water allocation under different climate change scenarios at regional and local levels. In order to achieve the objective, a regional mathematical programming model was developed considering 2 regions and 7 farming production systems. Results showed that farming systems are affected differently by climate change. Large farming whose profitability is confirmed at the current state, their sustainability is not strongly threatened in the case of the climate change scenario. The subsistence and the small farming systems which are in difficulty because of their modest productive resources, their technological backwardness, and their structural constraints. Water availability will have modest welfare impacts, with an average decrease of 16 %. Despite the small aggregated effects, it is expected that climate change will have uneven consequences across regional income. For instance, even though the Medium farming system in Tell inferior showed the smallest income changes 1 % (average), the impacts within the others systems (large farm system, subsistence system and small farm system) range from 2 % to 16 % decrease in agricultural income. This situation suggests large distributional consequences of climate change for the Tunisian agricultural sector.