Understanding Spatiotemporal Patterns and Drivers of Urban Flooding Using Municipal Reports

Abstract

Urban flooding is an increasing threat to cities and resident well-being. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) typically reports losses attributed to flooding which result from a stream overtopping its banks, discounting impacts of higher frequency, lower impact flooding that occurs when precipitation intensity exceeds the capacity of a drainage system. Despite its importance, the drivers of street flooding can often be difficult to identify, given street flooding data scarcity and the multitude of storm, built environment, and social factors involved. To address this knowledge gap, this study uses 922 street flooding reports to the city in Denver, Colorado, USA from 2000 to 2019 in coordination with rain gauge network data and Census tract information to improve understanding of spatiotemporal drivers of urban flooding. An initial threshold analysis using rainfall intensity to predict street flooding had performance close to random chance, which led us to investigate other drivers. A logistic regression describing the probability of a storm leading to a flood report showed the strongest predictors of urban flooding were, in descending order, maximum 5-min rainfall intensity, population density, storm depth, storm duration, median tract income, and stormwater pipe density. The logistic regression also showed that rainfall intensity and population density are nearly as important in determining the likelihood of a flood report incidence. In addition, topographic wetness index values at locations of flooding reports were higher than randomly selected points. A linear regression predicting the number of reports per area identified percent impervious as the single most important predictor. Our methodologies can be used to better inform urban flood awareness, response, and mitigation and are applicable to any city with flood reports and spatial precipitation data.