HCV transmission model with protection awareness in an SEACTR community

Abstract

Background

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a bloodborne virus that causes both acute and chronic hepatitis with the severity from a mild illness to liver cirrhosis and cancer. As one of the major infectious diseases in China, the monthly surveillance data from the Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention shows the increasing tendency from 2004 to 2011, the stable tendency from 2012 to 2016, and the declining tendency from 2017 to 2022. The 2004–2022 HCV infection tendency of Fujian Province is affected by nation-wide main control measures of Chinese government, because no control measures for HCV are modified from 2020 to 2022 during the prevalence of COVID-19 in Fujian Province.

Methods

The SEACTR (the susceptible, the exposed, the acutely infected, the chronically infected, the treated, the recovered) models with protection awareness are proposed. The next generation matrix method is used to compute basic reproduction number of toy model and dynamic analysis method is used to produce stochastic reproduction number of modified model. The least squares method and toy model are used to perform the optimal fitting against the monthly surveillance data. The positive preserving truncated Euler-Maruyama method is applied in modified model for the positivity of numerical simulations.

Results

The optimal fitting is performed using the monthly surveillance data provided by the Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention from 2004 to 2022. The sensitivities of protection efficiency and conversion rate to basic reproduction number and stochastic reproduction number are analyzed. The reproduction numbers and HCV infection scale with measures (single-measure, double-measure, triple-measure, and none-measure) are compared using toy model and modified model. The impacts of protection efficiency and conversion rate on exposed population, acutely infected population, chronically infected population, and treated population are analyzed. The tendency predictions for infected population and treated population in Fujian Province from 2023 to 2035 are conducted.

Conclusions

The HCV infection scale mainly depends on both protection efficiency and conversion rate, in which protection efficiency is the most important contributor. The reproduction numbers show the declining tendencies by phases, which indicate that the prevention and control of HCV in Fujian Province has achieved a remarkable achievement. The 2023–2035 tendency predictions of HCV infection scale in Fujian Province grow slowly due to approximately 19–109 monthly infections. The overall HCV growth tendency of Fujian Province is consistent with the nation-wide elimination objective.