How much does criminal history contribute to racial differences in arraignment outcomes?

Abstract

Differences based on race are prevalent across multiple processes and outcomes in the US criminal legal system, and one potential driver is the greater likelihood of Black individuals to possess a criminal history. Decisions made at arraignment about whether to detain an individual pretrial and require bail are typically influenced by judges' perceptions of their culpability and danger to society, which are influenced by criminal history. The current study employs a Structural Equation Model (SEM) to assess the extent to which criminal history mediates the association between race and arraignment outcomes in a sample of >15,000 cases in a large Southeastern county. Findings show that the sample of cases is disproportionately Black when compared with the surrounding population (85 % vs. 45 %, respectively), and that Black individuals are significantly more likely to be detained pretrial than White individuals (24 % vs. 21 %, respectively). SEM results indicate that criminal history accounts for all racial differences in pretrial detention and predicts pretrial detention more strongly among White than Black individuals. Neither criminal history nor race was significantly associated with assignment of bail. Strategies to reduce racial differences in pretrial detention may need to target how past criminal history informs pretrial release decisions at arraignment.