Renaissance of climate policy uncertainty: The effects of U.S. presidential election on energy markets volatility

Abstract

The global community has witnessed a burgeoning anxiety for accommodating the current climate changes. This heightened awareness has evoked a resurgence in the formulation and implementation of climate policies. Political events like the U.S. presidential election, may yield substantial influence over the trajectory of future climate policy formulation. In this paper, we scrutinize the impact of climate policy uncertainty (CPU) on energy market volatility against the backdrop of the 2024 presidential election of the U.S. We provide evidence that the CPU has a strong effect on energy market volatilities in China, which is more pronounced during the U.S. presidential election episodes. Notably, our study uncovers a crucial effect of the CPU on energy market volatilities in China, which manifests in both short-term and long-term. The short-term impact tends to be insubstantial, while the long-term effect conveys its solid influence to energy markets, suggesting fruitful implications for energy market participants as well as climate policy makers.