Estimating changes in extreme snow load in Europe as a function of global warming levels

IF 3.8 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Cold Regions Science and Technology Pub Date : 2025-01-16 DOI:10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104424

G. Evin , E. Le Roux , E. Kamir , S. Morin

{"title":"Estimating changes in extreme snow load in Europe as a function of global warming levels","authors":"G. Evin , E. Le Roux , E. Kamir , S. Morin","doi":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104424","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Most European regions regularly experience large snow loads due to large snow accumulations and/or intense snowfalls. In the future, the magnitude of extreme snow loads is generally expected to decrease due to global warming. However, this decrease depends strongly on the latitude and the elevation. This study aims to provide a flexible statistical framework to estimate changes in extreme snow load (50-year return levels) in Europe as a function of global warming levels, using a multi-model ensemble of snow cover projections. Different sets of nonstationary models are introduced to accommodate the nonzero probability of experiencing years without snow. In particular, parsimonious distributions (exponential, Gamma, Inverse-Gamma) are considered when zero SWE maxima are present. This approach is illustrated by an application to European regions. In a + 3 °C world, extreme snow loads are projected to decrease strongly in all of Europe compared to a warming level of +1 °C, which corresponds roughly to the current climate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":10522,"journal":{"name":"Cold Regions Science and Technology","volume":"231 ","pages":"Article 104424"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8000,"publicationDate":"2025-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Cold Regions Science and Technology","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165232X25000072","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, CIVIL","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Most European regions regularly experience large snow loads due to large snow accumulations and/or intense snowfalls. In the future, the magnitude of extreme snow loads is generally expected to decrease due to global warming. However, this decrease depends strongly on the latitude and the elevation. This study aims to provide a flexible statistical framework to estimate changes in extreme snow load (50-year return levels) in Europe as a function of global warming levels, using a multi-model ensemble of snow cover projections. Different sets of nonstationary models are introduced to accommodate the nonzero probability of experiencing years without snow. In particular, parsimonious distributions (exponential, Gamma, Inverse-Gamma) are considered when zero SWE maxima are present. This approach is illustrated by an application to European regions. In a + 3 °C world, extreme snow loads are projected to decrease strongly in all of Europe compared to a warming level of +1 °C, which corresponds roughly to the current climate.

查看原文

微信好友朋友圈 QQ好友复制链接

本刊更多论文

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文去求助

来源期刊

Cold Regions Science and Technology 工程技术-地球科学综合

CiteScore

7.40

自引率

12.20%

发文量

209

审稿时长

4.9 months

期刊介绍： Cold Regions Science and Technology is an international journal dealing with the science and technical problems of cold environments in both the polar regions and more temperate locations. It includes fundamental aspects of cryospheric sciences which have applications for cold regions problems as well as engineering topics which relate to the cryosphere. Emphasis is given to applied science with broad coverage of the physical and mechanical aspects of ice (including glaciers and sea ice), snow and snow avalanches, ice-water systems, ice-bonded soils and permafrost. Relevant aspects of Earth science, materials science, offshore and river ice engineering are also of primary interest. These include icing of ships and structures as well as trafficability in cold environments. Technological advances for cold regions in research, development, and engineering practice are relevant to the journal. Theoretical papers must include a detailed discussion of the potential application of the theory to address cold regions problems. The journal serves a wide range of specialists, providing a medium for interdisciplinary communication and a convenient source of reference.