Towards accurate ice accretion and galloping risk maps for Quebec: A data-driven approach

Abstract

Ice accretion poses a significant threat to infrastructure and public safety, particularly in regions prone to severe winter weather. Accurate ice accretion hazard mapping is essential for effective risk management and mitigation. While substantial progress has been made in mapping these hazards, most existing ice accretion maps rely on calculated ice accretion values rather than direct measurements, leading to potential inaccuracies. To address these limitations, this study leverages field measurement data from Hydro-Québec's glacimètre network to develop refined ice accretion maps for Quebec. The maximum annual ice accretion thicknesses are extracted, and a rigorous probability distribution fitting analysis is applied to generate 10-, 30-, and 50-year return period values. These values are interpolated using both inverse-distance weighted interpolation (IDWI) and kriging techniques, allowing for a comparative evaluation of interpolation methods. Additionally, galloping risks are assessed using the Performance-Based Ice Engineering (PBIE) framework, producing galloping risk maps for various return periods. By incorporating real-world data and comparing interpolation approaches, this research enhances the accuracy of ice accretion and galloping risk maps, providing more reliable hazard assessments for Quebec's infrastructure.