A novel method to calculate SSP-consistent remaining carbon budgets for the building sector: A case study of Canada

Abstract

Decarbonising the built environment is imperative to reach any net zero global GHG emissions targets. However, there remains uncertainty on how to orchestrate the mitigation efforts. Given a remaining global carbon budget, how should it be assigned both nationally and sectorally? Within this paper, we present a method and Python script to calculate country-specific carbon budgets using open-source datasets, for several scenarios and allocation methods. The script is run for Canada as a case study. Grounded in Canada's calculated carbon budget, tentative budget shares are explored for the Canadian building sector. The feasibility of meeting these budgets is broadly assessed using a streamlined calculation. Even under optimistic assumptions, the Canadian building sector is unlikely to meet its allocated budget share. Key limitations, data requirements and research avenues are highlighted to improve upon the presented approach.