Bed census prediction combining expert opinion and patient statistics

Abstract

Predictions of bed census are crucial for hospital capacity management choices, encompassing ward sizing, staffing, patient bed assignments, and surgical scheduling. Presently, these predictions heavily rely on doctors’ estimated Expected Discharge Date (EDD). This paper introduces two probabilistic models that integrate EDD with Length of Stay (LoS) distributions derived from data. By employing the Poisson binomial distribution and probabilistic convolution, we generate full census distributions. Applying our approach to real hospital data demonstrates its ability to provide precise predictions, leading to valuable managerial insights.